Peninsula, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

649
FXUS61 KCLE 221759
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
159 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger across the central Great Lakes
before drifting south towards the region on Tuesday night. This
front will stall over the area on Wednesday as a low pressure
system tracks from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Central
Great Lakes on Thursday. A surface trough lingers across the
area on Friday and Saturday before high pressure builds into the
region by Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6:45 PM Update...
Made some updates to the hourly PoPs through today to account
for latest observations and trends in model guidance. This
allows for cuts to PoPs through this morning. Also added patchy fog
to the forecast for late tonight into early Tuesday morning for
a good chunk of Northwest Ohio. Most model guidance have pretty
soupy conditions developing in the wake of the precipitation
shield that moves across the area this afternoon/evening.
Previous Discussion...
An upper-level low moves eastward into the northern Great Lakes
region, with broad southwest flow continuing across the Ohio
Vally and vicinity through tonight. A shortwave trough will
navigate this flow, moving into the Ohio area later this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through this morning with the synoptic-scale lift,
though should see an uptick in shower/storm coverage after
~19/20Z from the southwest and spreading eastward through the
evening and overnight hours. Compared to previous forecasts, the
main PoP/QPF axis has shifted to the east slightly, with most
persistent rain and highest QPF expected along and east of
I-71.
Steady southwest flow upstream has led to a moist warm sector
characterized by PWAT values in the 1.55-1.65" range, which is
climatologically equivalent to the ~95th percentile. Abundant
moisture should not only contribute to meaningful QPF totals
(~50-60% of >0.5") but thunderstorms will be able to produce
heavy downpours. Flooding is very unlikely, and in fact we
expect this rain will be quite beneficial considering widespread
drought conditions.
A coordinate of instability is likely to build into the
1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, with contributions from
advection of warm, moist air, and daytime heating. While there
is some uncertainty with expected morning cloud cover, the
general consensus is that there will be enough breaks in clouds
for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s. Moderate
mid-level flow will contribute to about 25-30 knots of deep-
layer shear, which is sufficient for organized convection. This
is largely the reason for the broad day 1 SPC marginal
convective outlook. However, when digging into the details,
there are a lot of things inhibiting the severe weather
potential:
*Mid-level dry air is lacking for descending downdrafts.
*Mid-lelvel lapse rates are poor for large hail.
*Low-level shear (in the 0-1km layer and 0-3km layer) are poor
 and unfavorable for tornadoes and sustained QLCS winds.
*00Z HREF helicity tracks are lower and shifted south of our
 forecast area compared to previous runs
*GEFS ML has lower probabilities compared to previous runs and
 generally less than 5% for our forecast area.
So while there is broad, general support for severe weather this
afternoon/evening, the most likely scenario is that we see a few
of the stronger thunderstorms (especially in the southeast
quadrant of our forecast area; i.e. Akron, Canton, Youngstown
area) that may produce gusty, sub-severe winds, small hail, and
heavy downpours.
Rain probably lingers in eastern Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania, into Tuesday, though we should see greatly
diminished coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day
Tuesday and the shortwave trough departs to the east. PoPs were
cut by 20-30% compared to the previous forecast down to a 30-60%
range, and even that may be too high at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level low that was situated over the northern Great
Lakes makes it way southeast across the Great Lakes region
through the short term period, with the trough axis over the
forecast area around 00Z/Friday. At the surface, we see the
stationary settle over our forecast area as a surface low
develops over the Mid-Missippi Valley and lift northeast to the
central Great Lakes by Thursday. There will be a chance of rain
showers in the forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly due
to spread in the model data. However, precipitation chances rise
more substantially Wednesday night and Thursday into the 70-80%
range areawide as that low moves across the area. Meaningful
QPF is expected to continue chipping away at drop continues,
with the probability of >0.5" in the 40-50% range. Scattered
thunderstorms may be possible as well Thursday afternoon,
contributing to locally higher amounts. Despite all these
features, temperatures are forecast to be pleasant and near the
climatological normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Despite the upper-level trough and low pressure system departing
to the east, a surface trough may linger longer enough for
isolated to scattered showers on Friday and Saturday. High
pressure finally builds in by Sunday, with precipitation
unlikely then. Temperatures will be about as average as they get
with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are moving across the region
this afternoon into the evening. Generally, most terminals are still
VFR, though within the showers, visibilites and ceilings have been
dropping to MVFR/IFR. Confidence is low for thunderstorms over
terminals, but those with the best chances will be KMFD, KCAK, and
KYNG from now through 23Z, with some lingering thunder in the most
eastern portion. As showers move out to the east, fog potential will
increase into the morning hours tomorrow. Guidance has been
increasing in widespread fog, especially across the western
terminals from 05-14Z. To the east, with showers still continuing
into tomorrow morning, fog chances will be lower. Though,
visibilities and ceilings will still drop down to IFR conditions
with the lower levels being saturated. Visibilities should start to
increase after 14Z tomorrow, but there may still be some lingering
spots. Ceilings will be slower to rise, so expect non-VFR ceilings
through the morning tomorrow.
Winds will generally be out of the south at 5-10 knots through the
TAF period. Within showers and thunderstorms gusts around 20 knots
can be expected.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible through Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie will be fairly quiet through this week,
though showers and thunderstorms could be locally higher winds and
waves.
Winds will predominately out of the southwest at 10-15 knots today
and Tuesday then becoming southeasterly at 5-10 knots by late
Tuesday night. By late Wednesday night winds will shift to be more
easterly and increase to 10-15 knots across the lake. A low pressure
system will move across the region late Wednesday into early
Thursday and winds will shift to be out of the northwest throughout
the day Thursday behind the passing cold front. High pressure will
begin to build into the region moving into the weekend and winds
will become lighter, generally less than 10 knots and out of the
southwest.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion