Perry Lake, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS63 KDDC 221031
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog/low-stratus possible early Monday morning
  especially south of Highway 56.
- A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be possible
  Monday. The main hazard from the strongest storms late
  Monday/Monday night will be large hail, strong damaging winds
  and locally heavy rainfall.
- The risk of severe weather will decrease Tuesday but the rain
  will continue. This additional rainfall may result in ongoing
  water issues in some locations, especially in low lying and
  poor drainage areas.
- A warm start (highs in the 80s) to the work week will give way
  to cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) Tuesday and
  Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The current synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by a low
pressure system situated over the northern CONUS. At the low-levels,
a subtle shortwave trough is present over Colorado, but otherwise
the southern Great Plains is featureless. With virtually no pressure
gradient, surface level winds are very light (80KTs) jet streak. In
addition to the severe threat, WPC has the area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. Tons of uncertainty remains with how much
rainfall some areas can get and where. A flood watch has been
considered, but uncertainty has resulted in holding off on issuance.
75th percentile ensemble rainfall has areas that exceed the 3 hour
guidance. The best chance is along an axis from Scott City to Pratt
and to the northeast. Regardless of the potential for widespread
flooding, localized areas could easily see flash flooding if storms
become stagnant or storms train over a particular area.
With the system, a cold front is expected to pass through SW Kansas
dropping temperatures and dramatically shifting the winds.
Temperatures will be in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Also Tuesday,
weak storms are expected behind the system into Tuesday night. These
storms are forecast to have little dynamical support and do not
offer a tangible severe threat. Isolated is flooding, especially in
areas that are already very saturated from the storms the day
before. Beyond Wednesday, a primarily dry stretch is expected
through the rest of the forecast period as ensembles have upper-
level ridging building and persisting over the forecast area.
Temperatures will warm back up into the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog/low-stratus has already developed this morning, especially
at LBL and DDC where flight conditions are down to LIFR. GCK may
also soon see lowered visibilities/ceilings, but uncertainty
remains on how low flight conditions will drop. Shortly after
sunrise, skies will clear until the later half of the period.
Storms are expected to descend from the northwest around 3Z. The
exact coverage and timing holds some uncertainty, but
widespread storms are forecast. This is expected to last across
much of SW Kansas through the TAF period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion