Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS65 KPUB 192006
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
206 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer, near normal temperatures are expected for this
  weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
  over and near the higher terrain, especially on Saturday.
- A pattern change arrives late Monday, ushering in cooler and
  wetter conditions from around Tuesday onwards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Currently...Somewhat broad upper ridge positioned over the southern
and southwestern US was producing weak southwest flow aloft across
the Four Corners, drawing up some moisture into western and southern
Colorado. A few showers have started to develop across the sw mts
and southern San Luis Valley as of 130 PM. Temps so far this
afternoon have been a bit slower to warm due to the extensive high
level cloud cover, with 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, and
70s to lower 80s for the plains.
Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the
southern and southwestern mts this afternoon as well as the southern
San Luis Valley, will likely linger until around 9 or 10 PM tonight.
Main threats with any storms will be erratic wind gusts to 45 mph,
lightning and brief periods of moderate rainfall. Plan on
minimum temps tonight in the 30s to around 40F for the high
valleys, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the plains.
Tomorrow...Broad upper ridge centered over Old Mexico will persist
through the weekend, imparting a west to northwest flow aloft across
Colorado. There is enough available moisture for scattered
convection once again across the higher terrain through the
afternoon, with isolated activity spilling onto the plains, and SPC
has painted the entire state within a General Thunder area. The best
CAPE and bulk shear is forecast to be along the eastern border, but
a lack of a trigger will be the limiting factor there. Look for
highs in the 70s across the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for
the plains. Moore
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Saturday night and Sunday..
We remain in the northern periphery of a flat upper ridge through
the weekend, allowing for temperatures to warm back up to near and
above normal seasonal levels. We`ll also see enough mid and upper-
level moisture, along with short wave energy, to keep continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over
the high country. Models point towards lesser thunderstorm
chances and increasing temperatures for Sunday, with highs
climbing into mid and upper-80s over the Arkansas River Valley.
We`ll be dry in the lower levels both days, bringing in higher
chances for gusty winds, and lower chances for wetting rains.
Monday and Tuesday..
Models are still showing quite a bit of disagreement about the
incoming low that looks to be arriving around the Tuesday timeframe.
Its exact timing, track, and the amplitude of the trough in general
are still wildly different amongst deterministic output. For now,
ensemble guidance still suggests that the influence of the low
should hold off until late Monday or Tuesday, giving way to another
day of near to just above normal temperatures for our Monday
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday as well, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Models
suggest that the cold front will likely arrive late Monday, ushering
in some much cooler temperatures for our Tuesday and Wednesday. The
NBM continues to slowly trend towards cooler guidance, though this
forecaster still dropped temperatures a few degrees from NBM output
on Tuesday given that other guidance has been consistently cooler.
Models continue to struggle with the track of this low, with the EC
keeping the wave open and pulling the trough axis right over
Colorado on Tuesday afternoon, the GFS closing off a low and keeping
it just to our north by Tuesday evening, and the Canadian pulling
the low all the way back to our west and into the four corners
region by Wednesday morning. Of course, this timing and track will
ultimately decide our forecast through the middle of the week, but
it seems that a pattern change towards below normal temperatures and
continued chances for precipitation will be in store eventually, no
matter the solution.
Wednesday Onwards..
Models suggest another low coming in from our southwest right on the
tail of the Tuesday system. Of course, there is even less agreement
on this system than its predecessor, but most solutions suggest it
will eventually pass over our region and eject to our southeast,
leaving us in a ridging pattern by next weekend. If this plays out,
we`ll likely see near to just below temperatures for the Thursday
and Friday timeframe, with a warmup through the weekend. Continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher
terrain also seem to be possible through much of the rest of the
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Good amount of high level cloud cover across CO today, with best
chance of convection over the southwest mts and southern border.
VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Surface winds generally diurnal in direction and under 12 kts,
though maintained PROB30 wording for KALS for -TSRA and variable
gusts to 30 kt between 22z and 01z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOORE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion