Pettus, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS64 KCRP 051059
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
559 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 553 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Hot and humid conditions persist today
- Fire Danger Statement in effect from 1-7 PM today
- Increased rain chances return this weekend into early next week
with highest chances (60 to 80%) Sunday into Monday
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding Sunday and Sunday
night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
South Texas will be positioned along the northern periphery of the
H5 ridge today resulting in one more day of dry conditions over
South Texas. Although high-lvl moisture will begin to stream in from
the west in association with the remnant moisture plume of former
Tropical Storm Lorena, this should only manifest itself as scattered
cirrus. Hot conditions will also persist with highs ranging from the
mid 90s near the immediate coast to near 105 along the Rio Grande
Plains, with peak heat indices in the 105 to 110 range.
Deeper moisture will filter in on Saturday, ushering in the return
of appreciable rain chances to the area. Any large-scale forcing
will remain upstream of the area so rain coverage and intensity will
be limited, with the highest chances (50-60%) focused along the
Coastal Plain and Gulf waters where the best surface convergence
will be in place.
The highest rain chances of the forecast period (generally 60-80%)
still look to occur on Sunday/Monday as a weak frontal system sags
southward and potentially interacts with remnant moisture and mid-
lvl energy associated with the former EPAC TC Lorena. Unfortunately,
model uncertainty remains high for this period with solutions
ranging from only scattered showers to a fairly widespread rain
events with isolated pockets of totals in excess of 2 inches. Do
have increasing confidence that at least locally heavy downpours
with 1 to 2 inch totals will occur somewhere over the area, but
until we get into the temporal window of the convective-allowing
models the location, coverage, magnitude, and timing of these higher
totals remains nebulous.
Beyond Monday, rain chances will decrease as the boundary sags just
south of the area and drier mid-lvl air shifts into the area along
the eastern flank of southwestern US ridging. Interestingly, the
drier model clusters for Sunday/Monday are wetter for Tuesday-
Thursday, while the wetter clusters early in the week tend to be
drier in this period. This is likely due to the the fact that the
former camp shows a much weaker/more nebulous frontal push
Sun/Monday while the latter show a more defined push with more
noticeably drying behind the boundary. Given this uncertainty, tied
to the aforementioned frontal strength and positioning, will keep
PoPs in the 20 to 40% range Tuesday-Thursday, with a north-south
oriented gradient.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
This morning`s boundary layer RH is allowing for some SCT/BKN
clouds with CIGs around 2.0-2.5K ft, before thinning out in
coverage later this morning. Expect S`ly winds to pick up to near
10 kts by late morning, switching to SE`lies at 10-15 kts gusting
to 20 kts this afternoon with the passage of the seabreeze. Winds
subside and become variable after 06Z, while remaining near 10 kts
across the Brush Country.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly breeze (BF 3-4) is
expected through Saturday before backing more easterly into next
week. Rain chances will quickly increase late Friday night into
Saturday and will largely be in the 50 to 80% range each day through
Tuesday. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds can be
expected in and around stronger thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across
the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop to critical levels and climatological
normals ranging between 20-30% Thursday afternoon. These low
relative humidity values will coincide with Energy Release
Component (ERC) values in the 70-89th percentile which could
increase the probability of fire ignition. Winds will remain
under 15kts which will preclude any more significant fire weather
concerns. Fire weather concerns should diminish this weekend as
moisture and rain chances increase over the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  93  77 /   0  20  60  50
Victoria          98  74  95  73 /   0  10  50  30
Laredo           104  79 101  77 /   0  10  30  40
Alice            100  75  96  74 /   0  10  60  40
Rockport          93  79  92  78 /  10  20  60  50
Cotulla          103  78  97  75 /   0  10  40  30
Kingsville        97  76  95  75 /   0  10  60  40
Navy Corpus       91  82  90  82 /  10  30  60  60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...AE/82

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion