Phelps Lake, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS62 KMHX 011924
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
324 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto are moving to the
northeast and farther away from ENC but will continue to bring
coastal impacts to the area through late week due to their
respective swells. Strong high pressure will build in from the
north into the weekend bringing with it a prolonged period of
strong NE winds and cooler and drier conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2:20 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue
 - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section)
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto continue to move
northeast and away from ENC. Over land, a surface high is
centered over Quebec and is expanding south across the eastern
US.
The gradient between the offshore systems and the strengthening
high will remain tight, which will keep NE winds breezy to
strong across the FA. Winds will be strongest along the OBX and
Downeast Carteret where a Wind Advisory remains in effect until
8 PM tonight for gusts up to 45 mph. Elsewhere, gusts up to
25-35 mph can be expected. With drier high pressure building in
from the north, cloud cover will continue to scatter out today
and reveal more sun than we`ve seen in days. This airmass change
has brought a noticeable difference in humidity with dewpoints
into the 50s this afternoon. Temps are coolest across northern
zones (low- to mid-70s) with southern zones just a touch warmer
(upper-70s). Some hi-res guidance shows scattered light showers
(mainly east of Highway 17) later this afternoon and evening,
but moisture will be decreasing as the tropical system pull
farther away and the high builds in from the north. However, a
few sprinkles can`t be ruled out.
Lows will be much cooler tonight, especially across the coastal
plain where temps will reach the low- to mid-50s. Closer to the
coast where greater cloud cover will hang on overnight, temps
will bottom out in the low-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue
 - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section)
The surface high will continue expanding across the area with a
coastal trough developing nearby. This boundary and a weak
impulse moving south in the upper levels may be enough forcing
to support a few isolated sprinkles, but with so much
subsidence, a dry forecast persists with scattered low clouds
across the area. The gradient will remain pinched between the
building high and Hurricane Imelda, which will allow the breezy
NE winds to persist with 15-25 mph gusts inland and 25-35 mph
gusts along the coast. Highs will be in the low- to mid-70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Strong high pressure building in from the north will lead to
   a prolonged period of gusty NE winds this week.
Sfc high pressure will build in from the north while upper ridging
builds across the Eastern CONUS through the long term.
NE winds continue to weaken Thursday through the end of the week,
then veer to easterly as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast over the weekend.
Generally dry weather is expected for most area through the long
term although a coastal trough offshore may produce periods of
showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show
some of these showers working their way toward the coast, especially
over weekend into next week with easterly flow developing as the
highs moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the work week
with highs in the mid 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the
weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the period. A pinched pressure gradient between the high
pressure building in from the north and offshore Imelda will
keep winds out of the NE with gusts around 25 kt this afternoon
and around 20 kt tomorrow. Low clouds will linger through the
period but MVFR CIGs are not expected.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the north. NE
winds will gust around 20 kt Thursday afternoon, then will be
less than 15 kt Friday into the weekend. Cannot rule out patchy
late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be
weaker and low levels decouple overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2:45 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Treacherous marine conditions through the period
Latest obs show NE winds 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt and seas
10-15 ft seas at 11-13 seconds. With the pressure gradient
tight between high pressure building from the north and
offshore Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto,
conditions will remain dangerous today and tonight. Winds are
peaking right now and will slowly improve tonight, decreasing to
around 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt by early tomorrow
morning. Seas are also peaking right now but will barely
improve overnight with 10-14 ft seas at 11-12 seconds expected
early tomorrow morning. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all
coastal waters and sounds with SCAs for the inland waters.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions will continue late this week as large
   swells from two tropical cyclones continuing to impact the waters.
High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around
20-30 kt on Thursday diminishing to around 10-20 kt on Friday. The
high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming
easterly around 15 kt or less.
Seas around 8-14 ft on Thursday will slowly subside through the long
term as long period, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep
SCA conditions across the coastal waters through the rest of the
long term.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 220 AM Wed...Long period swell and strong NE winds are
causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and
this will continue over the next few days. Strong NE winds will
lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the
southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers. CF Warnings
and Advisories remain in effect for the next few days as water
levels will remain elevated.
Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell
from distant Humberto peaks today. While Humberto begins to
move away, swell from Imelda then quickly arrives into the area
and will also peak today into Thursday. As a result, swell
impacts are expected the next few days, which include dangerous
rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal
flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts at
the moment look to be across portions of the OBX near Hatteras
Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is
possible into Thu given weakened dune structures across the
area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across oceanside
Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds due to the
strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues brought on from
the strong swell. High Surf Advisories remain for the entire
coast for rough surf and beach erosion.
Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to
water level rises the next few days. 1-2 ft of inundation is
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and
Pamlico/Pungo rivers.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094-
     194.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-199.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...OJC/SK
MARINE...OJC/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion