Pickerel Lake Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

974
FXUS63 KDLH 150930
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
430 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures gradually warm through the work week, with the
  warmest day on Friday with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
- Next chance for rain late tonight through Thursday with rain
  chances lingering through the weekend. Rainfall amounts of up
  to a half inch are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Early morning showers/sprinkles over the area this morning will
shift off to the east fairly quickly this morning. Cloud cover
will linger with warm moist air advection continuing today into
Thursday ahead of an upper level trough that is now over the
southwestern CONUS. This upper trough will lift northeast
through today and Thursday before pushing into Manitoba Thursday
night/early Friday. This pattern continues the southwesterly
upper level flow with warm moist air advection ongoing through
Thursday night. With this, there will be another push of
precipitation moving across the Northland beginning tonight,
continuing through Thursday, then tapering off to scattered
showers Friday as the cold front moves through the region. We
wil then have scattered wrap around showers which linger into at
least Saturday. Another effect of the extended period of warm
air advection is the gradual warming trend. While we will be
cool, mostly in the 50s today, temperatures warm into the 60s to
low 70s for Friday. These temperatures will be a good 10
degrees above normal, but nowhere near records, which are in the
80s this time of year. Temperatures cool off for the weekend
with the upper low now to the northeast and northwest flow
bringing cooler air back into the area.
High pressure builds back into the area for early next week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances should
return by the middle of the week, depending on how quickly the
next upper level trough pushes into the area. Confidence in the
precipitation forecast for next week remains low at this point,
with some pretty large differences between models.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Mostly VFR conditions persist at the terminals as of issuance
time. KDLH has been affected by easterly flow off the lake and
has IFR ceilings, which should persist overnight, though it may
be intermittent at times. During the day we expect it to lift
to MVFR before scattering out during the afternoon hours. There
is a chance for it to return again after 03z tonight as the
easterly flow continues, but confidence remains low for now.
MVFR ceilings should spread into KBRD and KHYR after 08z, and
linger at KBRD through the remainder of the TAF period. KHYR
should lower a few hours later, but break up to VFR during the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
TAF period for KHIB and KINL. Expect predominately light and
variable to calm winds through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
A ridge of high pressure building into the area will keep winds
on the lighter side and generally out of the east to northeast
today. As the high pressure slides east of the area, winds will
veer southeast tonight into Thursday and begin to increase.
Waves should remain 1 foot or less through Thursday, but as
winds increase to 10 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday and
become more southerly, waves will build, especially along the
North Shore. Conditions may become hazardous for small craft. A
warm front will bring another round of showers to most of the
lake during the day on Thursday, with precipitation chances
lingering through Friday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion