Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS63 KMQT 151732
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
132 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures for midweek followed by a warm start
  to the weekend.
- Rain chances increase late Thursday and continue into the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal broad upper
level ridging across the central and eastern CONUS this morning,
with a deep trough centered over the Sierra Nevadas dominating the
west. Closer to home, a weak disturbance moving over the top of the
ridge is exiting northern Lower Michigan early this morning. This
has produced a some light rain showers along the WI border
overnight, but amounts have been limited to no more than a few
hundredths of an inch at any location. Extensive cloud cover has
also helped to hold temperatures up in the 40s across the area.
Expect cloud cover to erode fairly rapidly after daybreak as surface
high pressure becomes re-established and drier northwest flow
develops aloft. This will yield a pleasant fall day, with sunny
skies by afternoon and high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.
Tonight will be colder as clear skies and light winds allow
temperatures to fall well into the 30s across much of the area, save
for areas near Lake Superior remaining in the low 40s. Could also
see some patchy fog develop in a few spots given recent light
rainfall.
Thursday will bring the beginnings of shift to a wetter, more active
pattern for the end of the week as the trough out west ejects out of
the Rockies onto the Northern Plains. This will spur surface
cyclogenesis as a deep low tracks into the Dakotas, which will in
turn send a warm front across the U.P. and bring increased chances
for more substantial rain across the area Thursday afternoon and
evening. The NBM depicts a 30-50% chance to receive at least a
quarter inch of rain in most locations through Friday morning, with
around a 10-20% chance to receive as much as half inch across the
northern and eastern U.P. Friday will bring a relative lull in
precipitation behind the warm front, with southerly flow and warm
advection sending temperatures well into the 60s if not near 70
degrees in many locations for Friday afternoon. Another round of
rainfall is expected Friday night into Saturday as a cold front
sweeps across the U.P. from west to east, possibly accompanied by a
few rumbles of thunder.
Upper Michigan settles into a troughier pattern by later this
weekend into the beginning of next week, yielding a cooler and more
showery pattern under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft. Expect
temperatures generally near seasonal norms in the low 50s through
the first half of next week, with overnight lows in the 30s in the
interior and the low 40s closer to the lakes.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Good flying conditions for most of the TAF period. The only
exception could be a period of MVFR conditions at IWD tomorrow as a
warm front brings rain showers to Upper Michigan. Will also have
to continue to monitor for any of those conditions reaching CMX
and SAW. Meanwhile, winds will be light and variable and non-
impactful.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Light winds near or below 10 kt over the lake today and tonight as
high pressure moves overhead. Winds will increase out of the south
on Thursday as deep low pressure moves into the Northern Plains,
bringing 20-25 kt gusts along the Keweenaw and the eastern half of
Lake Superior by Thursday night. Strengthening southerly flow will
bring potential for Gales over the eastern half of the lake and
favorable downslope areas Friday into Friday night, with the
probability for Gale force gusts currently sitting at 30-50% over
the eastern half of the lake. Winds turn westerly with the arrival
of a cold front over the weekend and remain in the 20-25 kt range
through Sunday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion