Pierceville, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

360
FXUS63 KDDC 181033
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain/storms early this morning
- Isolated storm chances Saturday and Sunday mornings
- Seasonal temperatures through the forecast period
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Currently, widespread thunderstorms blanket a significant portion of
SW Kansas. This is mostly in two parts; one part is a MCS that has
developed and moved in from Colorado while the other is a line of
storms that has developed along a frontal boundary draped nearly
east/west across western Kansas. The latest WPC surface analysis
places a weak surface low at the center of the MCS. Aloft, the
CONUS` synoptic pattern is headlined by a deep low centered around
South Dakota. Attached to this is the frontal boundary that has
resulted in storms in SW Kansas. The surface low, and corresponding
MCS, is progged by CAMs (with widespread agreement) to move
east/northeast over the next few hours. By late morning nearly all
of the storms/precipitation is expected to have left the CWA.
Earlier CAM runs hinted at some redevelopment of convection in the
afternoon, but more recent CAM/ensemble runs have backed off
considerably with the expansive overnight storms.
The rest of Thursday and Friday is forecast to be primarily dry.
Thursday is projected to have lighter shifting winds before stronger
southern winds develop into Friday. High temperatures are expected
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s for those two days and
beyond through the forecast period.
The next chance for storms arrive very early Saturday morning during
the overnight hours. Ensembles have around a 20-30% chance for the
east/northeastern counties to see precipitation including Hays and
Pratt. A lack of a robust forcing and upper-level dynamical support
really adds uncertainty while limiting top end strength of any
storms that develop. However, the NAMNST forecast sounding shows
enough CAPE and shear (2000 J/kg and 40 KTs) to support marginally
severe storms if the previous two limitations can be overcome.
Sunday morning looks very similar to the position Saturday morning
shifted further east. Again ensembles have around a 20-30% chance
for precipitation east of Highway 183.
After the weekend, ensembles have a primarily zonal flow aloft with
synoptic ridging building over the Rockies into the middle of next
weekend. This will help lead into a very benign weather pattern for
next week. Some chances for precipitation lingers each day at around
10% in the eastern portions of the CWA, but this is held in high
uncertainty until the larger weather pattern materializes.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through the
TAF period. LBL, HYS, and DDC are forecast to see VCSH in the first
few hours of the period. Afterwards, mostly clear skies are
expected; shifting winds are expected for most of the period and
although winds may exceed 5 KTs, winds are forecast to be variable
due to the frontal boundary draped across SW Kansas.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion