Pilot Mountain State Park North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS61 KRNK 131757
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
157 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system heads off the mid-Atlantic coast today,
then out to sea Tuesday. A dry front then pushes across midweek
with cooler temperatures behind it. High pressure controls our
weather for the late week into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Gusty winds through Tuesday, with drier weather and warmer than
normal temperatures.
2. Some fog possible tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Two surface low pressure systems are easily observed in visible
satellite imagery today, one off the coast of the Carolinas, and the
other off the Delmarva coast. These two systems kept drizzle
and areas of light rain in parts of eastern VA and NC through
this morning, but dry air from increasingly northerly flow
aloft, and building high pressure at the surface, has
effectively cut off any lingering drizzle, though plenty of
residual moisture has kept low clouds over the region. This
morning`s sounding at RNK, especially when compared to the
sounding from 24 hours ago, shows the expansion of the dry layer
above 700mb, and PWATs have decreased to under 0.80" since
yesterday evening.
By late tonight, the two upper lows will phase, and eventually
pull farther into the Atlantic, allowing more dry air to work
its way into the region. Ridging at 500mb builds over the south
central US, and expands eastward into the Mid Atlantic through
Tuesday, as a strong trough deepens over the western US. The
proximity of the low tomorrow offshore of VA and NC will keep
some moisture in the region, and so will not see a significant
drop in dewpoints and humidity until after Tuesday, after a
midweek frontal passage. Therefore, though today and tomorrow
will feature no rain, low temperatures tonight will still be
elevated, in the mid to upper 40s west of the Blue Ridge, and
low to mid 50s east. Highs temperatures tomorrow will be warmer
than seasonal norms under increasing sunshine, in the mid to
upper 70s in the Piedmont and foothills, and mid 60s to low 70s
in the mountains.
With the moisture and clearing skies overnight, will likely see
patchy fog, mostly confined in the valleys for a few hours
tomorrow morning, but this should dissipate fairly soon after
sunrise, with mixing from solar heating and increasing winds.
Gusty winds will wane slightly by the evening hours, though
stronger 850mb winds will keep the ridges mixed overnight, and
will also help keep the potential for fog low over the
mountains. Winds become gusty again Tuesday, with the tightening
pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high,
so gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible by the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday...
Key Messages:
1) Cold front to arrive later this week and briefly bring cooler and
drier air.
2) Frost likely Friday morning for areas along and west of the Blue
Ridge.
Wednesday will be the warmest part of this section of the forecast
before a cold front arrives to bring in cooler and drier air. High
temperatures will likely be in the 70s regionwide, reaching in the
upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge. When the front pushes through, it
will increase wind speeds briefly with gusts between 10-15 mph along
and west of the Blue Ridge. Some areas at the ridgetops could see
gusts up to 20 mph. Dew points will downtrend into the 30s and 40s
by Thursday and air temperatures will start to decline as well with
highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Friday morning will be the
coldest part of the week with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s. The
center of a surface high pressure system will be just close enough
to keep winds calm and skies clear to support frost development,
particularly along and west of the Blue Ridge. While clear skies and
low temperatures are likely, the specifics on the wind speed will be
the main determining factor of the spatial extent of frost across
the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT MONDAY...
Key Message:
1) Frontal system to potentially bring showers early next week.
All eyes are on a frontal system that is likely to impact most of
the United States later this week and the Mid-Atlantic by early next
week. Southwesterly winds will refill the atmosphere with
moisture and raise dew points back into the 50s for most of the
region by Sunday. Model guidance is confident there will be
precipitation with this system, though it is far too early to
know how much rain could be expected. Likewise, while some storm
parameters such as wind shear look to be favorable, it is also
too early to know of any severe weather potential. Machine
Learning models have picked up a small signal of a severe
weather risk for the Mid-Atlantic and the South in general but
confidence is pretty low and the Storm Prediction Center
currently does not have any outlooks for our area. The severe
potential may rest on how unstable it could get and will likely
be dependent on weather the storm system arrives during the day
or night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...
The region has mostly returned to VFR conditions, after SCT to
BKN low clouds with ceilings around 2 to 3kft persisted through
much of the morning and early afternoon. Afternoon cumulus will
continue through evening hours, and a brief period of clearing
skies is anticipated overnight, which will allow for some patchy
fog to develop mainly in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge,
impacting KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB. Low stratus will also push
southward, reaching those same western terminals during the
early morning hours of Tuesday, so sub-VFR conditions are
likely in those areas until 14Z or so Tuesday. Low clouds return
to the eastern terminals of KDAN and KLYH Tuesday morning as
well, and so skies there again become BKN at least, possibly
OVC, and MVFR ceilings are possible through about 16Z Tuesday.
Winds will remain mostly northerly through the current TAF
period, and gusts between 15 to 20 knots are likely this
afternoon. Winds will slacken somewhat overnight for most
locations, except along the ridgetops where they look to remain
over 10 knots, but become gusty again areawide Tuesday
afternoon, between 20 to 25 knots.
Forecast confidence is moderate, but low on specific
visibilities and ceilings.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Flight conditions improve for all area terminals along and east
of the Blue Ridge after Tuesday afternoon, low clouds holding
on longer for the west. For the remainder of the week, VFR
conditions are expected across the area, outside of patchy
morning fog in the river valleys. Gusty winds continue through
the middle of the week, mainly north to northwesterly through
Friday. Next chance of rain arrives over the weekend.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion