Pine Creek Trail, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

929
FXUS65 KPUB 211119
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
519 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier and warm today.
- warm again tomorrow with increasing thunder chances.
- Closed low to move over state Tuesday-ish bringing high elevation
snow and cool damp wx to a good part of the remainder of the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2025
Today...Warm and dry conditions are expected today over a large
majority of the fcst area today. Best chance of some isolated
thunder will be over higher elevations of central mtns and higher
elevations of the Pikes Peak region.
Tonight...Dry. Min temps in the 50s plains, 40s valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Monday...Moisture begins to increase from the west and pops begin to
increase over the mtns early in teh day and progress west as the day
advances. This is in response to a compact trough moving in from the
NW. This system will allow a front to move down the plains during
the afternoon period, with upslope flow developing in the low levels
by later in the day. This in turn will bring a bit more unstable
airmass to the region, and thunder will become possible by later in
the afternoon over the plains. SPC has a good part of the
plains under marginal for severe storms this day given the
increasing flow aloft and increasing instability in the low
levels.
Monday night into Tuesday...Weather will become a bit more active
over the region. Confidence is high that it will become much cooler
over the region, and max temps only in the 50s to around 70F for the
plains looks reasonable. How much precip we get will be dependent on
the track and intensity of the incoming mid level low. NAM
guidance is more open and progressive while the GFS and EC are a
bit more farther west and more closed off. If these two models
verify, then we will see a much better chance od deeper upslope
flow and wrap- around moisture. At this time, it appears the
best chance of precip will be over the Pikes Peak region and
southern mtns. As for precip type, snow will be possible at the
highest elevations during this period and expect the mtn tops
will get a covering of snow with this event. Lower elevations
will likely see some flakes but not much in the way off accums.
Could monument hill see some flakes?...maybe...and if would
occur it would be Wed AM.
From mid week into the weekend, much drier wx and warmer weather
returns. We could see a return of a more monsoon pattern returning
by the weekend, but this will be dependent on the motion of a closed
low over the SW CONUS during this time period. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KCOS and KALS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion