Pinon, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

072
FXUS64 KEPZ 070414
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1014 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1012 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage in the Rio Grande
  Valley over the next 1-3 hours.
- Significant warming and drying begins Sunday. Temperatures still
  a few degrees below normal. Showers and storms mainly east of
  the Rio Grande.
- Drier and warm conditions prevail Monday through midweek, with
  slight chances for isolated mountain storms.
- Moisture returns Wednesday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
This evening should be our last active period for convection for
awhile. Batch of tropical moisture still hanging on and short wave
moving across central/south central New Mexico, so thunderstorms
will continue until shortly after midnight tonight. HRRR has done
pretty well with tonight`s action and will base short term
forecast/TAFS on this output. It forecast the first line of storms
several hours ago, and has the second group of storms over Sierra
County drifting down over Luna and Dona Ana Counties before
dissipating. Outflow from these storms has just reached Las Cruces
and is headed for the El Paso metro area within the next 1-2
hours. Doesn`t look like much new development along the outflow.
Looking further out...still looking at a drying trend for the week
ahead as upper high over far south Texas/Mexico drifts over the
Baja Pen by Monday. This turns our upper flow to a drier
north/northwest flow. Enough residual moisture persists over the
Sac Mtns to continue a low POP; otherwise most POPs disappear. By
Monday warming 850mb temps and plenty of sunshine warm
temperatures back up, and a few lowland triple digit highs could
occur.
Wednesday through the weekend...looks like a gradual moistening up
again as the Baja upper high re-positions itself back over
west/central Texas, and deep, early autumn upper low moves over
the western U.S. This will allow mid level southerly moist flow
to develop back over much of the CWA. Initially (Wed/Thu) the
mountains and western CWA will see chances of thunderstorms, and
then by Fri/Sat the entire CWA could see some thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
SCT090 SCT-BKN250. Over southern Sierra County...scattered
BKN050CB 4-6SM -TSRA moving south into Luna and Dona Ana Counties
over the next 3 hours and mostly dissipating. Pea-size hail and
wind gusts of 25-30 knots with some of these storms. A few
thunderstorms possible again Sunday after 18Z, mainly over the
mountains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 937 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Low-end fire weather concerns continue due to cooler than normal
temperatures, and higher than normal moisture/rh values across the
entire region. We have seen light to moderate rainfall across much
of the region to reduce atmospheric and fuel dryness. Winds are
also only light to moderate, and will stay that way, with high
pressure building over the region. For this afternoon and evening,
despite some drying aloft, we have plenty of low-level moisture
to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy
rain. Temperatures will top out a bit below normal, RH will bottom
out in the 30% range, and we will see plenty of cloud cover
develop.
Tomorrow will be quite a bit drier, as a ridge of high pressure
aloft, to our west directs drier air over the region on NW flow,
which will push our current moisture out to the east. Only the far
eastern areas (SACs) will have decent chances for rain or storms,
while the rest of the region see warmer and drier conditions.
Monday and Tuesday the ridge will be overhead, with continued
warming and drying. Temperatures will rise to normal and slightly
above. RH will drop into the 20% range, and even some upper teens
across the lowlands. Shower and storms are not expected, but a
stray mountain storm, with little precipitation, can`t be totally
ruled out.
Midweek and beyond, we see high pressure east, and a trough west,
which will funnel and channel moisture up from the south in a plume
over E AZ and W NM. Thus we could begin to see better rain/storm
chances over the Bootheel and Gila, while the rest of the region
remains warm and dry.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  91  71  95 /  40  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            59  85  60  88 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces               62  88  64  91 /  40  10  10   0
Alamogordo               61  88  65  91 /  50  10   0  10
Cloudcroft               45  66  48  69 /  40  20  10  20
Truth or Consequences    61  88  65  90 /  50  10  10   0
Silver City              57  84  60  85 /  30  10  10  10
Deming                   62  92  64  95 /  30  10  10   0
Lordsburg                63  89  65  90 /  20  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       67  88  71  92 /  40  10  10   0
Dell City                62  88  62  92 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             65  90  67  94 /  20  20  10  10
Loma Linda               60  81  62  85 /  30  10  10  10
Fabens                   65  89  66  93 /  30  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             65  88  67  91 /  40  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           64  88  68  92 /  50  10  10  10
Jornada Range            61  87  64  90 /  50  10  10  10
Hatch                    62  91  64  94 /  40  10  10  10
Columbus                 64  90  67  93 /  30  10  10   0
Orogrande                60  85  63  90 /  50  10  10  10
Mayhill                  50  76  53  80 /  40  30  10  20
Mescalero                50  78  53  81 /  40  20  10  20
Timberon                 49  75  51  77 /  40  20  10  10
Winston                  50  82  53  84 /  50  10  10  10
Hillsboro                58  88  61  90 /  40  10  10  10
Spaceport                59  88  62  90 /  50  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             52  85  54  86 /  40  10  10  10
Hurley                   58  86  61  88 /  30  10  10   0
Cliff                    60  90  62  92 /  30  10  10   0
Mule Creek               57  86  59  88 /  20  10  10   0
Faywood                  58  85  61  88 /  30  10  10  10
Animas                   63  89  65  91 /  20  10  10   0
Hachita                  61  88  63  90 /  20  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           60  88  63  90 /  20  10  10   0
Cloverdale               59  82  61  85 /  20  10  10   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion