Pinos Altos, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

985
FXUS64 KEPZ 051652
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1052 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the
   week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   the week, favoring northern areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
This morning`s UL pattern across the CONUS is a long-wave trough
west and ridge east. This places Southern NM and Far West TX at
the front base of the trough beneath deep albeit weak SW flow.
This is a warm and dry pattern though enough of a subtropical tap
lingers for alto-cu and cu development. Surface pressure trough
across NM will limit winds as well, with just mild afternoon
breezes. We stay in this pattern through at least Monday.
Starting Tuesday, flow will become increasingly easterly, allowing
more moisture to arrive. The GFS and NAM take this boundary to
the AZ border while the Euro stalls this boundary along the Rio
Grande Valley. The increase in moisture as well as surface
convergence along the front will introduce rain chances to the
forecast though coverage will be limited thanks to weak to
negative upper level support via weak ridging. Rain chances will
continue into Wednesday though favoring the northern half of the
CWA.
UL ridge will build across Chihuahua and NM by Thursday with this
pattern holding into Saturday. There will be moisture working
itself around the perimeter of the ridge, allowing for low rain
chances next weekend for areas west of the Rio Grande.
Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the period
although a stronger frontal intrusion on Tuesday would bring highs
closer to normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout the period with FEW-SCT100
during the afternoon period via shallow cu. Winds will be light,
topping out around 10 knots with a few gusts of 20-25 knots during
the afternoon from the south or southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
This afternoon will feature the driest conditions as much of the
lowlands fall below 15% RH, but moisture is expected to increase
for Monday and moreso for Tuesday. The Gila will see min RH values
around 15%, but elsewhere values will range in the upper teens
and lower 20s for Monday, increasing to the mid to upper 20s area
wide for Tuesday. Winds will continue to be relatively light,
peaking at around 10 MPH each afternoon. Venting will range fair
to very good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  91  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            59  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces               57  86  62  84 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               59  87  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
Cloudcroft               44  65  46  60 /   0  10  10  30
Truth or Consequences    54  84  58  81 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City              51  78  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   54  88  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  88  69  86 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                60  89  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             65  93  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               59  83  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   63  91  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             62  87  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           62  87  65  84 /   0   0  10  20
Jornada Range            57  86  62  83 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                    55  88  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 58  88  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                58  86  63  82 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  48  75  49  69 /   0  10  10  40
Mescalero                48  77  50  72 /   0  10  10  30
Timberon                 48  73  49  69 /   0  10  10  30
Winston                  44  78  48  75 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro                53  84  56  82 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                52  85  59  82 /   0   0  10  20
Lake Roberts             45  79  48  79 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                   50  81  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    51  86  55  86 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               48  81  51  83 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  53  81  59  80 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   54  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  84  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           54  85  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               54  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion