Pinto Tank New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

554
FXUS65 KABQ 132342 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of
  precipitation occur through Tuesday night. The flash flood risk
  will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm
  Raymond crosses the state, isolated flash flooding remains a
  concern, especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso. Elevated
  flows in main stem rivers across northwest New Mexico will
  continue.
- Dry and breezy conditions will return Thursday through the end
  of the week.
- Freezing temperatures are expected for much of northern, western
  and portions of central New Mexico Friday morning. This will be
  the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley,
  San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. Should these areas
  not freeze Friday morning, a higher probability for the first
  freeze will exist for these zones along with the northeast
  highlands on Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Moisture from the remnants of T.S. Raymond are currently expanding
northward across western NM, and numerous showers are noted across
southwest NM. These showers, and those in eastern AZ, will expand
across much of western and central NM through the afternoon and
evening. Instability continues to be lacking, but a few breaks in
the clouds early this afternoon and the resultant heating should
allow for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The window for
thunderstorms should largely close around sunset however.
Precipitation will expand across eastern NM overnight as top-down
moistening occurs, and this precipitation will continue through
the morning hours on Tuesday. Many areas should receive between
0.25 and 0.75 inches of precipitation through noon Tuesday, though
a few locations will receive over an inch where stronger storms
and/or repeated rounds of precipitation occur. The backdoor front
that pushed through the plains and the gaps of the Central
Mountain Chain this morning is located near the east slopes of the
Western Mountains, and may provide a focus for repeated rounds of
showers through the evening. Of particular concern are the rivers
across San Juan County. Elevated flows are already occurring due
to heavy precipitation across Colorado a few days ago, and though
river levels have come down a bit since yesterday, today`s
precipitation will allow rivers to rise once again. Bankfull or
near bankfull levels are expected on the Animas River in
Farmington through Tuesday night, and very high flows will also
continue on the San Juan River.
While the moisture from former T.S. Raymond will shift northeast
and out of NM Tuesday afternoon, enough moisture will linger
across NM to allow for scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms to form again Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation will
be focused along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain, but
isolated areas in the Rio Grande Valley will pick up rain as
well as showers and storms form along a mid level moisture
gradient. Mid-level lapse rates will remain near moist adiabatic,
so thunderstorms will again be limited, but the best chances for
thunderstorms look to be across south central areas where models
indicate greater instability will be present. Precipitation should
linger well into the evening and overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
The next upper level low will dive down the CA coast on Monday
turn east across the Great Basin on Tuesday, before slowly
lifting northeastward through Utah on Wednesday. Ascent associated
with this feature will allow for another round of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across NM. The greatest forcing
looks to be over north central areas, and that is where PoPs are
focused. With the tropical moisture influence lessening, and
temperatures trending upward, we should see a healthy mix of
showers and thunderstorms. Given there is abundant shear and
modest instability, a few strong or perhaps a stray severe storm
will be possible. Gusty winds and hail will be the main concerns.
The trough axis and an associated surface front will slide across
NM Wednesday night through Thursday. Much drier air behind trough
axis will press into western NM and with daytime heating Thursday,
much of the low level moisture should mix out. However, before all
the moisture is scoured out of eastern NM, isolated storms may
develop near the Texas border. These storms may again be strong or
briefly severe. Elsewhere, dry, breezy and cooler conditions will
be the rule behind the front.
Quiet conditions will prevail for the end of the week through the
weekend. Below normal temperatures on Friday will warm to near
seasonal averages by Sunday. The drier conditions will allow
temperatures to plummet at night. We`re still expected the first
freeze for the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains, and portions
of the Northwest Plateau on Friday morning. These same areas as
well as the lower Chama River Valley and areas near Raton should
experience another freeze Saturday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Showery weather will persist overnight with activity initially
being focused in western to central areas. A few thunderstorms
will even be observed through the early evening with stronger wind
gusts and brief downpours accompanying. Rain will be shifting
more to central and northeastern sections of New Mexico late
tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday with lots of low
stratus clouds and patchy fog filling in behind over rain-soaked
areas. This will lead to scattered to widespread areas of MVFR
ceilings (less than 3000 ft) and MVFR visibility (less than 5
miles). Spotty IFR ceilings (less than 1000 ft) and IFR visibility
(less than 3 miles) will be concentrated along and near the
central mountain chain through the mid morning Tuesday. Ceilings
and visibility will slowly improve into the early afternoon
Tuesday with new showers and storms redeveloping over central New
Mexico by the mid to late afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
No fire weather concerns this week. Tropical moisture will cross
NM through early Tuesday, with showers and isolated storms
impacting most of the area. Wetting rainfall is likely. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday near and east of
the Central Mtn Chain, Wednesday across north central NM, and
Thursday across far eastern NM. Thereafter, drier conditions will
prevail. A cold front crossing the state on Thursday from west to
east will bring cooler temperatures. The first freeze for some low
elevations locales are expected Friday and/or Saturday morning. RH
values will gradually trend lower late week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  73  53  72 /  80  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  45  69  45  69 / 100  40  40  60
Cuba............................  49  68  50  69 /  90  30  30  50
Gallup..........................  49  71  44  70 /  70   0   0   5
El Morro........................  47  69  46  71 /  70   5   0  10
Grants..........................  49  72  48  75 /  80  10  10  20
Quemado.........................  49  70  48  72 /  60   5   0   5
Magdalena.......................  53  70  54  72 /  60  20  30  10
Datil...........................  49  68  49  71 /  60  10  10  10
Reserve.........................  50  71  47  75 /  60  10   5   5
Glenwood........................  53  76  50  79 /  60  20   5   5
Chama...........................  43  63  44  63 /  90  50  40  60
Los Alamos......................  49  64  51  65 /  90  60  60  60
Pecos...........................  48  63  50  65 /  90  80  70  50
Cerro/Questa....................  47  65  49  66 /  80  40  40  40
Red River.......................  40  58  43  59 /  80  40  40  40
Angel Fire......................  40  63  43  64 /  80  60  50  40
Taos............................  48  69  49  69 /  80  40  50  40
Mora............................  44  63  47  64 /  80  80  60  40
Espanola........................  52  72  54  73 /  80  50  60  50
Santa Fe........................  51  66  53  68 /  80  70  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  49  68  52  70 /  90  60  60  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  72  57  75 /  90  50  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  73  58  77 /  80  40  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  75  57  79 /  80  40  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  74  58  76 /  90  40  40  20
Belen...........................  56  76  56  79 /  70  30  40  10
Bernalillo......................  55  75  57  78 /  90  50  50  30
Bosque Farms....................  54  75  55  78 /  80  40  40  20
Corrales........................  56  75  57  78 /  90  40  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  55  76  56  78 /  80  40  40  20
Placitas........................  53  71  55  74 /  90  50  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  56  74  57  77 /  90  40  40  30
Socorro.........................  57  77  58  80 /  60  30  30   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  66  51  70 /  90  60  60  30
Tijeras.........................  52  68  53  72 /  90  60  60  30
Edgewood........................  50  68  51  71 /  90  70  60  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  69  50  73 /  80  70  60  30
Clines Corners..................  49  64  49  67 /  80  80  60  30
Mountainair.....................  51  68  51  71 /  80  60  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  51  69  50  71 /  80  60  50  10
Carrizozo.......................  56  73  54  75 /  70  60  40  10
Ruidoso.........................  51  68  50  70 /  70  60  30  20
Capulin.........................  47  63  49  65 /  70  40  20  10
Raton...........................  48  64  51  68 /  70  40  30  20
Springer........................  49  65  52  69 /  80  50  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  47  61  49  63 /  80  80  70  40
Clayton.........................  51  69  54  74 /  80  40  10   5
Roy.............................  51  64  52  67 /  80  70  40  20
Conchas.........................  56  72  55  74 /  90  60  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  55  68  53  69 /  80  60  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  56  76  54  77 /  80  60  10  10
Clovis..........................  59  77  54  79 /  60  40   0   5
Portales........................  59  78  53  80 /  60  40   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  74  56  76 /  80  50  10  10
Roswell.........................  61  79  59  79 /  60  30   0   5
Picacho.........................  56  74  54  75 /  60  40  20  10
Elk.............................  53  73  51  76 /  70  40  20  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion