Plainville, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

013
FXUS63 KGID 220939
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
439 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few light showers move through central Nebraska this
  morning.
- Thunderstorm chances increase this evening and continue into
  tonight. Some of these storms could become severe...especially
  in the 6pm to 2am timeframe.
- Continued showers and non-severe storms on Tuesday and Tuesday
  night...gradually drying out from north to south.
- Pretty high confidence in dry conditions from Wednesday
  afternoon into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Radar shows a few showers moving into western portions of the
area as of 4am this morning. There has been no lightning with
this activity so far, and near term models keep it pretty weak
as it slides through central Nebraska through around noon. Most
areas will only see sprinkles, but a few hundredths of an inch
of rain isn`t out of the question in localized areas.
As this exits to the east, attention shifts to the potential for
convective development later today. With afternoon temps in the
80s, MLCAPE values are expected to be in the 2-3000J/kg
range...more than sufficient for at least a few severe storms.
That said, confidence is on the lower side in exactly how storms
will play out. There is some risk for severe storms across the
entire area, but CAMs generally agree in two distinct areas to
watch most closely:
1.) Clusters of storms moving out of northwest KS and into
north-central KS and far southern Nebraska (after 6-7pm).
2.) More discrete storms along a surface front over the eastern
1/3 of Nebraska (Highway 14 eastward). The NAMnest develops
these storms as early as 5-6pm, although the HRRR and most of
the other HREF members are insistent that there will be little
to no convection in this area until after 10pm. These storms
could last well into the overnight, although the best threat
will eventually shift east of our area.
Instability will wane into early Tuesday morning, effectively
ending any meaningful severe threat. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will persist and continue to redevelop into
Tuesday, though. As such, Tuesday will be a cool, dreary, and
wet day for most of the area. Highest coverage of
showers/storms gradually push southward Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Most, if not all, of the rain will have exited
the area by sunrise on Wednesday. All said and done, rain
amounts could vary from as little as 0.05" in northern parts of
the area to 2.00-3.00+ in some areas south of I-80 (especially
in northern KS). Ensembles and the NBM have trended a bit
lighter on rain totals through the event over the past 24 hours.
Beyond that, global ensembles show little to no threat for
rain/t-storms for the rest of the week. Temperatures will also
rebound back to the 80s by Friday/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are favored with only a low (10-15%) chance for
MVFR fog/mist Monday morning. A few showers are expected to past
near or just north of GRI/EAR in the 13-17Z timeframe.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop Monday evening and
continue through Monday night.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion