246 FXUS62 KKEY 011450 AFDKEYArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Happy first day of October! A mostly uneventful morning is unfolding for the Florida Keys. KBYX has detected some isolated showers across the CWA, but now are limited to the northern deep Gulf waters. Outside of these light pop up showers, a majority of the island chain appears cloud-free on GOES-19 Visible satelitte imagery. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding revealed we are still in a pocket of dry air and MIMIC Precipitable Water backs that up. Temperatures across land are in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s making for a pretty warm day ahead. Along the Reef, winds are starting to slacken as Hurricane Imelda moves even farther away from our CWA and high pressure builds back in. Not much change is expected for the remainder of the day with slackening breezes and occasional isolated showers, therefore, no changes were made to this update cycle.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, Hurricane Imelda will continue to track northeastward, and will allow for higher pressure to build in its place, resulting in gentle breezes gradually slacken into Thursday morning. The high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward into the western North Atlantic, and build, freshening northeast to east breezes starting Thursday afternoon. Winds will then clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend.
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.AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will limit shower development so no mention of VCSH at either terminal. Northerly winds will slacken and become light and variable by the afternoon.
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.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. &&
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Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion