Pleasant Grove Cemetery Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

939
FXUS63 KLMK 140147
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
947 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.
*  Strong frontal boundary to move through the region late Saturday
   and into Sunday.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
   during this time frame with 1-2 inches of rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Mid-level cloud deck over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky has
dissipated, revealing clear skies. Some cool spots have quickly
decoupled this evening, bringing temperatures into the low-to-mid
50s already. In the early morning, we are expecting river valley fog
similar to previous mornings. Will increase fog in the forecast to
reflect this forecast. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on
track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Afternoon satellite and observations reveal mostly sunny skies
across the region.  A diurnal Cu field has developed mainly east of
I-65 out through the I-75 corridor.  Temperatures were generally in
the lower to middle 70s across the region.  With a few more hours of
insolation, most location swill see highs in the 72-77 degree range.
A few isolated spots may hit 80, though the best chance of that looks
to be in areas west of I-165 corridor.  No significant weather is
expected through this evening.
For the overnight period, mostly clear skies are expected.  We may
get a few high clouds drift in from the west.  Patchy river valley
fog is expected once again with overnight lows in the mid-upper 40s.
Ridgetop areas will likely only cool to around 50.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, dry and quiet weather is expected to
continue as mid-level ridging builds from eastern TX northeastward
into the southern Great Lakes.  A weak frontal boundary will drift
in from the northwest on Wednesday, but with scant moisture to work
with, only a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  Highs on
Tuesday will be in the 74-79 degree range.  Overnight lows will dip
back in the mid-upper 40s in the valleys with around 50 on the
ridgetops.  Similar temperatures are expected on Wednesday with
highs again between 74-79.  Lows Wednesday night will likely have a
bit of gradient across the region.  Lows will range from the lower
50s west of I-65, to the mid-upper 40s in the I-75 corridor.
Portions of the northeast Bluegrass may dip into the upper 30s/lower
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Thursday through Friday Night...
Moving into the long term period, the upper level flow across the
CONUS will likely start off with an omega pattern with closed lows
over the western US and across far northeastern New England.  The
Ohio Valley will remain underneath an upper level ridge for at least
Thursday and into Friday before the pattern starts to break down and
become more progressive.  With that said, Thursday and Friday will
feature dry conditions.  With the ridge axis off to our west on
Thursday, we`ll have a northwest flow bringing some cooler air into
the region.  Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s
across much of the region.  The exception may be across our far
southwest where some mid-upper 70s may be found.  Overnight lows
will feature a gradient once again with mainly low 50s west of I-65
with mid 40s across the US 27/127 corridor.  Upper 30s/lower 40s
will be possible across the Bluegrass region.  As the upper level
ridge pushes east on Friday, we should see temperatures rebound a bit
as we get under a stronger southwest flow.  Highs on Friday look to
warm into the mid-upper 70s with some lower 80s across southern KY.
These temps could be a little underdone as the models tend too cool
at the beginning of return flow events.  Lows Friday night will be
markedly milder with readings only cooling into mid-upper 50s.
Saturday through Monday...
Moving into the weekend, the pattern becomes a bit more interesting
as a mid-level trough axis moves from the central Plains into the
Great Lakes states.  Ahead of this trough, the global models show a
rapid increase in moisture advection off the western Gulf up through
the lower and mid-MS river valleys.  During the day on Saturday
moderate instability will develop ahead of the upper trough and cold
front.  Additionally, wind shear will pick up in earnest through the
daytime hours leading to a broad shield of showers and thunderstorms
from TX northeastward into IL/IN.  Given the anticipated shear and
instability, a corridor of severe thunderstorms looks increasingly
likely from NE TX into central IL and possibly into central IN. Much
of this activity will be west of our CWA during the day.  However,
as the trough axis moves east Saturday night and into the day on
Sunday, this band of showers and storms will move across our region.
Current model solutions still contain a bit of spread here, but the
current data suggests that showers and storms will move into our
region late Saturday and into early Sunday.  A potential severe
weather threat exists, mainly across western KY.  However,
additional storm development may occur Sunday afternoon across
eastern portions of the TN/OH Valleys.  Model soundings do show
lesser amounts of instability across the region on Sunday, so the
overall threat may be a bit more limited in the later part of the
period.  Nonetheless, this period of the forecast will be closely
monitored over the coming day.  With the front passing through with
plenty of moisture, a solid 1-2 inches of rainfall looks likely with
this activity. The upper trough axis will quickly close off into a
closed low and move through eastern Ontario and Quebec on Monday
with a strong northwest flow developing across the region for
Monday.
Highs on Saturday will likely be the warmest within us being in the
warm sector.  Highs will likely warm into the upper 70s to the lower
80s.  If we have a bit more sun in the warm sector, middle 80s can`t
be ruled out.  Widespread clouds and precipitation will knock temps
way down on Sunday with highs only reaching the upper 60s to the
lower 70s.  Highs on Monday will be cooler as well with readings
likely staying in the 60s.
Extended Forecast Discussion (Beyond Monday and into Week Two)...
Looking further out into the extended period, the global models have
been showing significant changes on the hemispheric scale across
other portions of the world that will start to influence weather
patterns across North America.  Over the past few days, the global
models have been strongly suggesting a strong Siberian high dropping
into northern China and pressing down into the Himalayas.  This will
result in a positive mountain torque that will result in downstream
enhancement of the Pacific Jet.  The Pacific Jet will become more
intense and start to extend across the Pacific.  As this occurs,
the latest MJO forecasts show the MJO rotating through the maritime
continent (phase 4/5) and then spreading eastward into the western
Pacific (phase 6-7).  The downstream ramifications of this across
North America will be for a warmer end of October for much of the
country, but an increasingly stormy pattern for the Plains into the
Midwest/Ohio Valley.  This is supported by the teleconnection
pattern moving to a +PNA/+EPO/+AO/-NAO configuration to close out
October.  Signal analysis shows several signals crossing through the
Ohio Valley.  The first looks to arrive around 10/22-23 with a
second one coming around 10/26.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
As the sun is setting, winds are beginning to calm and skies remain
mostly clear. There is a patch of mid-level clouds over southern
Indiana, which is expected to dissipate over the next few hours. In
the early morning, fog will be possible similar to previous mornings
at BWG/HNB/RGA and other low-lying river valley areas. This fog is
expected to burn off within a hour or two of sunrise. Tuesday will
remain sunny with winds picking up out of the northeast. In the
afternoon, ample mixing and a increased low-level winds will lead to
some gusty winds around 18-22kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SRW

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion