Pleasant Lake, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS63 KGRR 302353
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
753 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through the Weekend
- Chance of Rain Early Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Dry through the Weekend
Upper ridging slowly flattens over the next few days. Dry easterly
flow continues into mid-week then goes south with modest moisture
return by early next week. No rain expected through this week and
the weekend as ridging persists ahead of slowly advancing western
CONUS troughing.
- Chance of Rain Early Next Week
As the upper trough advances, a cold front will provide enough low
level convergence for some showers to move in late Monday, but
instability is limited and thunder chances appear to be low enough
to leave out of the forecast at this point. The front should move
through by Tuesday with surface high pressure building in and a
return to fair weather and near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Tonight there is medium confidence in IFR, perhaps LIFR, stratus
clouds developing as moisture off Lake Huron flows in via 25 knot
northeasterly winds at 1,000 feet, combined with cooling near
ground level occurring under mostly clear skies. These winds
(resulting in about 20 knots of wind shear between 1,000 feet and
ground) are favored to prevent fog and keep any potential clouds
as low stratus instead. Not all high resolution models are sold on
cloud development, some staying just a bit too dry, but the NAM-
Nest does develop clouds and the HRW-ARW is very close.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
East winds to 20 knots will mean waves will be limited to one to
two feet the next day or so, with the higher waves well offshore.
The winds go south on Thursday and Friday and increase, and a
Small Craft Advisory may be needed by the Friday or Saturday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion