Pleasanthill, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

359
FXUS63 KOAX 220909
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
409 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog will impact areas along and east of the Missouri River
  this morning, and again Tuesday morning.
- Temperatures will climb into the 80s this afternoon. Cooler temperatures
  (70s) are expected through late this week.
- Thunderstorms are expected late Monday afternoon through early
  Tuesday morning. A few storms could become strong to severe
  with hail being the main concern. Gusty winds will also be
  possible in addition to an isolated tornado.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog has developed along and east of the Missouri River this morning.
Localized areas of one mile or less visibility will be expected
through around mid-morning, dissipating as temperatures warm up.
Southerly winds will usher warmer air into the region today. Highs
will reach the low to mid-80s.
A shortwave trough will slide southeast across the Rockies today and
a surface low will move across Nebraska today. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, kicking off
along a boundary in the northeastern part of the CWA and moving
southward. Large hail will be the main concern with storms that
develop. Gusty winds will also be a concern with thunderstorms.
There is a small, non-zero chance for an isolated tornado for areas
to the southeast of the sfc low. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the overnight hours and into the day
Tuesday as the upper trough slips into the Central High Plains.
Tuesday evening, a 20-30% chance of showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm will remain possible for areas primarily along and
south of I-80.
Expect a cool down Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
Heading into the latter part of the week, a gradual warming trend
will set up. Highs will return to the upper 70s to mid-80s by
Friday. An upper ridge sets up over the Central Plains Friday,
remaining over the region through the weekend. Expect dry conditions
and highs each day in the upper 70s to mid-80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Fog is the main concern in the short-term, with IFR visibilities
of 2 miles forecast for KOMA by 10z, lasting through just after
sunrise. Lower visibilities are not forecast due to the slightly
stronger winds of 5+ kts, but we`re already starting to see
some mist near KICL, and similar conditions should spread. KOFK
and KLNK should be too far west to see any impacts, with the
main concern after visibilities improve around 14z being shower
and storm chances tomorrow late afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours. Timing for storm initiation and placement has
been varying by up to 6 hours from one short-term model to the
next. For now we are leaving them out of the forecast, with 21z
being the earliest development possible, with storm chances
peaking 03-07z with strong winds being the main threat.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion