Plevna, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

485
FXUS63 KICT 051126
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Numerous rain showers with a handful of embedded thunderstorms
  expected through early this evening. Severe weather or
  flooding unlikely.
- Temperatures 20-25 degrees below average this afternoon.
- Below average temperatures persist through early next week,
  with a gradual warming trend back to seasonable averages by
  mid-late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Currently, a deep upper trough is situated over the Great Lakes
Region with a secondary surge of energy beginning to dive into the
Northern Plains. At the surface, this translates to a pair of
surface fronts that are bringing us progressively cooler
temperatures. The frontal boundary that brought our slightly cooler
temperatures yesterday is now draped across the Mississippi Valley.
The next frontal boundary that will send our temperatures
plummeting 20-30 degrees below normal is stretched across central
Kansas at this early morning hour.
Ahead of the front early this morning, 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear supported a few strong to severe
thunderstorms in western Kansas. As this activity moved further
eastward into a less favorable environment and the frontal boundary
dove southward and undercut the storms, the severe threat waned and
a generalized shower and run of the mill thunderstorm threat is
expected to continue through the morning and into the afternoon
hours across our area. Rainfall amounts will remain modest with most
across the region receiving around 0.25 inch with localized higher
amounts between 0.50-1 inch. The combination of rain, relentless
cloud cover, and cold frontal passage will keep temperatures today
in the lower to middle 60s areawide. These temperatures are
20-25 degrees below normal for this time of year and may
threaten record cool high temperatures. Temperatures tonight,
then, will fall into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees as skies
clear overnight.
For the weekend, a stout surface high will be centered over the
Northern Plains, extending down through our area. This feature will
sustain below normal temperatures with highs in the 70s and
overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. We can also expect dry and
mostly sunny conditions through the weekend making it ideal weather
to get outside.
As we move into next week, the ridge to our west will begin to build
back over the region. This will lead to a gradual warming trend with
highs in the lower 80s to begin the week and temperatures nearing
normal in the middle to upper 80s for the middle to end of the week.
We will also have a couple of opportunities for rain with the best
shot currently looking like Monday/Monday night as an upper level
short-wave moves across the region with corresponding 850mb WAA
increasing. Additional spotty shower chances exist through the
remainder of the week, but probabilities currently remain low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR to MVFR conditions through the morning and afternoon hours
as showers and a few embedded thunderstorms move east across the
area bringing occasional lower ceilings and reduced visibility.
Rain will clear out from north to south later this afternoon
into the evening hours. Stout northerly winds this morning will
become light and variable later this afternoon/early evening.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD
CLIMATE...

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion