Plumville Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS61 KILN 151756
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will offer quiet and dry conditions through the end of
the work week. Gusty winds along with the next chance of
precipitation will arrive with a strong low pressure system this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Considerable cloudiness this afternoon will decrease in coverage
heading into tonight as a weak mid-level disturbance pushes off east
of the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will remain the dominant
weather feature, with clearing skies and cool temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Drier air will advect into the middle Ohio Valley on Thursday as the
surface high noses south from the Great Lakes into the upper
Tennessee Valley. This will produce sunny skies and near-normal
temperatures. A few mid and high clouds will begin to move into our
western counties Thursday night. In the east, clear skies and low
humidity will allow lows to drop into the middle to upper 30s. In the
more sheltered locations, patchy frost is possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains centered just east of the Ohio Valley
on Friday into Friday night allowing seasonable, dry weather to
continue. Southerly flow helps highs to reach up near 70 on Friday.
Lows on Friday night drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Cirrus
should be fairly persistent Friday and Friday night.
On Saturday, surface high pressure begins shifting east along with
an upper level trough axis. Currently, Saturday looks to be dry and
warm before the next disturbance arrives Saturday night into Sunday.
This next disturbance will be a surface low and associated upper
level trough moving in from the west. Widespread rainfall is
expected especially on Sunday when increased PWATs overlap with
forcing ahead of the low. Global ensembles suggest 0.5-1" of rain is
likely. Despite shear and kinematic profiles being strong, the
severe risk is low since instability is not currently forecast to
develop. In addition to rain, breezy conditions are likely to be
noted Saturday night through Monday.
Rain chances diminish Sunday night into Monday morning behind the
surface low and cold front. Cooler, drier conditions are expected
behind the front for the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high pressure
builds back south into the middle Ohio Valley. Can`t rule out another
bout of river valley fog at LUK... though lingering mid-level clouds
could keep visibilities up some tonight compared to the dense fog of
recent days.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion