Pocket Tank Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

753
FXUS65 KFGZ 140529
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 PM MST Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the area
through Tuesday morning with some of the storms being strong to
severe. A few showers may clip the northwestern part of the state
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure system
moves by to the north. Wednesday afternoon through the end of the
week things dry out, with high temperatures dropping to 5-10
degrees below mid October averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Approaching Low pressure system from California is
providing some shear to the area making things a little
interesting this afternoon. A few isolated supercells have
developed in other parts of the state, including one that just
went over Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix causing a 63 mph wind
gust. The potential remains for parts of our area to see some of
these stronger storms or supercells so strong winds, large hail
and even a funnel cloud or isolated tornado remain a possibility
through tonight.
Starting tonight into tomorrow the approaching closed Low over
California will start bringing in some drier air which will
finally dry out the state from this subtropical air mass. By
Tuesday afternoon this Low will hook to the northeast from Santa
Barbara, pass just north of Las Vegas and head into the Great
Basin, weakening as it does. Most of its frontal band and moisture
will head northeast with it, but northwestern Arizona could see a
few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Kaibab Plateau
including Jacob Lake could see some snow mixing in with the rain,
although no accumulations are expected.
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, northwesterly flow aloft
takes over which will keep things dry, but our afternoon high
temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees below average. A fast
moving ridge heads through on the weekend warming temperatures
back up to average.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 14/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Along and
east of a KPHX-KFLG line, expect SCT -SHRA/SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA
through 12Z-15Z Tuesday. Any areas with rain and thunderstorms will
produce MVFR/IFR conditions, otherwise VFR. All areas VFR AFT 18Z
Tuesday. Sfc winds S-SW10-20kts overnight, increasing to 15-25g35kts
AFT 16Z-18Z Tuesday. Locally gusty winds downwind of higher terrain
are possible overnight.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20kts Wednesday, becoming light
on Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Most of the subtropical
moisture that`s been in the region recently departs the area by
midday Tuesday. However on Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
northwestern Arizona could see a few showers as a Low pressure
system skirts the area to the north. It is possible for some snow to
mix in on the Kaibab Plateau with these showers. Winds S-SW 15-25
mph with gusts 30-40 mph Tuesday, SW-W 10-20 mph, gust 25-30 mph on
Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...Precipitation chances end for the rest
of the week with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below mid October
averages. Winds W-NW 5-10 mph each day.  Min RH`s 20-35% Thursday
and Friday, 20-30% Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ007-015.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion