Point Hope Automatic Weather Observing, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

836
FXAK69 PAFG 201124
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly quiet weather pattern with typical fall like weather
continues for much of Northern Alaska. Temperatures will be
gradually cooling this weekend and into next week as an arctic
troughs drops southeast from the arctic. There`s also a low in the
Gulf and these two systems will both bring chances for rain and
snow showers across much of the area. By Tuesday of next week, the
two systems will join forces and bring a chance for snow in the
Interior, especially in the higher terrain from the AK Range north
and east. An active pattern may develop thereafter. More details
on that will be in the "extended forecast" portion.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers over the Eastern Interior with isolated
  showers over the Central Interior today, lessening in coverage
  tomorrow.
- Rain in the Alaska Range with snow above 4000 feet this
  afternoon through tomorrow.
- An arctic trough drops into the Interior Monday afternoon,
  showers increase in coverage and snow levels drop to 1000 feet
  or less north and west of Fairbanks, 1500-2500 feet from
  Fairbanks south/east.
- Light snow possible in the White Mountains and hills around
   Fairbanks, more likely in the Alaska Range Passes and less
   likely southeast of Fairbanks in the Eastern Interior/Upper
   Tanana Valley.
- Temperatures in the low to mid 50s for highs this weekend, mid
  to upper 40s Monday/Tuesday. Widespread frosts and freezes more
  likely by Tuesday night.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated showers across Western Alaska, most likely from McGrath
  northward this afternoon through Monday afternoon.
- An arctic trough arrives Monday and drops temperatures for most
  of next week.
- Highs this weekend are warmest today, in the upper 40s to low
  50s, then drop each day with highs in the low to mid 40s Monday
  and Tuesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Onshore flow keeps stratus and areas of fog across the North
  Slope and Brooks Range.
- An arctic trough drops over the North Slope Monday morning
  bringing areas of light snow to the Western Arctic Coast.
- Light accumulations around 1 inch possible through Tuesday.
- Light snow develops over the Central Brooks Range Monday
  afternoon and shifts east through Tuesday with light
  accumulations around 1 to 3 inches possible.
- Snow showers persist across the North Slope Tuesday.
- Temperatures in the mid 30s along the coast and 20s to low 30s
  in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The state of Alaska remains under the influence of broad troughing
aloft as we head into the weekend. This includes two upper lows
as of this morning. One is over the Gulf while the other one is
over the Beaufort Sea. The one in the Bering Sea will bring a
front to the Interior today with scattered showers over the
Eastern Interior and isolated showers in the Central Interior.
Expect rain in the Alaska Range as well. The front will weaken
tomorrow with shower chances lessening in coverage.
Early next week will see the Arctic low strengthens and sends an
arctic front southward across the North Slope and West Coast
resulting in noticeably colder temperatures in these areas and
allowing for some of that arctic chill to seep into parts of the
Interior as well. The Gulf low will send a stronger warm front
north over the Alaska Range. This will bring higher rain chances
to much of the Interior with higher elevations seeing snowfall.
The higher terrain of the White mountains may well see a light
accumulation of snow early next week while the Parks highway
through the Alaska Range could also be impacted as rain changes
over to snow as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Persistent onshore flow should keep chances for snow showers
through the end of next week on the North Slope. The West Coast
should remain quiet but chilly as the arctic trough brings colder
temperatures with highs in the 40s. In the Central and Eastern
Interior, expect a cooler pattern as the arctic trough drops
south. A low entering the Gulf from the Bering Sea next week may
bring another chance for rain and snow across the Interior and
Alaska Range Thursday and Friday.
On Friday, models are honing in on a strong low in Eastern Russia
which could bring the first chance for accumulating snow to much
of the Interior. Many ECMWF, GFS and CMC ensemble members are all
showing the potential for several inches of snow from the Western
Interior to the Eastern Interior by next weekend. One caveat,
there is still a high amount of uncertainty in the strength and
placement of the low. It may very well take a track into the
southern Bering Sea, but many ensemble members are beginning to
cluster the low near the Chukotka Peninsula with a storm track
east-northeast. If it did pan out like this, it would bring
southwest flow to Northern Alaska and plenty of moisture. This
coupled with cold air in place would thus result in snow. We will
continue monitoring the ever evolving pattern through next week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-816-817-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion