Pollards Corner, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

586
FXUS62 KCAE 231733
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
133 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, dry conditions, and hot temperatures expected
through mid-week. Rain chances will then be on the increase as a
cold front approaches by the end of the week. Cooler
temperatures return then behind the cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Hot and dry conditions expected into Wednesday.
Weak surface ridging remains in place across the area with warm
temps climbing into the upper 80`s and low 90`s today. With
rising heights aloft and notable dry air above 700mb, not
expecting much in the way of cloud cover this afternoon; the
only exception being in the western Midlands where some cloud
debris blow off from decayed storms well to the west may push
in this afternoon. Otherwise, the CSRA and Midlands should
remain dry today with deeper moisture and rain chances remaining
along the coast and stronger synoptic forcing associated with a
digging trough well to the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry conditions continue with along with well above normal daytime
temperatures.
A deep positively tilted trough will be positioned from the Great
Lakes southwest into Kansas at the start of the period. This will
bring southwesterly flow into the region, promoting warm air
advection and increasing moisture. This should result in a summer-
like day across the Midlands and CSRA as daytime temperatures reach
into the lower 90s, about 10 degrees above seasonal values. Higher
dewpoints will create heat index values in the mid to upper 90s,
which could result in heat stress for those unprepared for the
atypical heat. The forecast remains dry through and any
precipitation will likely hold off until Thursday. It`ll be a muggy
overnight with temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees by
daybreak on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Significant pattern change expected to end the week with showers
and thunderstorms possible late Thursday through Saturday. A few
thunderstorms may be strong.
- Uncertainty in the forecast increases this weekend but the current
trend is for cooler and drier conditions during the second half of
the extended.
The aforementioned trough will move east Thursday and Friday,
potentially leaving behind an upper low over the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys this weekend. At the surface, a cold front will be moving
into the Appalachians at the start of the extended and is slated to
move into our region late Thursday into Friday, bring the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC SWO places the entire
region in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather but the severe
threat will be contingent on how much instability can develop on
Thursday ahead of the cold front and what time the convection comes
through. The current time period is in the evening, possibly after
dark, which would suggest a lower end risk for the CWA. Should
severe weather develop, damaging winds would be the primary hazard.
With PWATs around 2 inches, we could also see a localized flash
flood threat. Rain chances continue Friday and Saturday. Uncertainty
increases this weekend as it is unclear if an upper level low will
develop to our west and what, if any, interaction it will have with
Invest AL94, currently moving into the Northern Lesser Antilles. The
NBM maintains above normal temperatures on Thursday, but this will
depend on the amount of cloud cover we see and there may be a large
northwest to southeast gradient in the highs. More seasonable
daytime temperatures are likely for the remainder of the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period.
Hot and dry conditions expected throughout the afternoon and
evening with little cloud cover and light, variable winds. This
will continue overnight into Wednesday morning before winds
become more steady out of the southeast and some moisture
returns to the area leading to some more typical summer cumulus
Wednesday. Some MIFG is possible again Wednesday morning, but
impactful cigs or vsby restrictions are not expected.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
the end of the week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions on
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion