Pollock, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

898
FXUS64 KSHV 241240
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
740 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
   impacting the Four State Region today before diminishing in
   coverage and intensity by late afternoon into the evening.
- While strong thunderstorms will continue to be possible today,
   a severe threat cannot be ruled out. However, any damaging
   wind and/or hail threat may be more isolated in nature.
- There may be an isolated flash flood threat as well as we go
   through the day but widespread flooding is not likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cold front late this Tuesday Evening was located just west of the
DFW Metroplex to just northwest of Fort Smith, Arkansas with this
frontal boundary continuing to make slow and steady progress south
and east. Convection for the most part as been oriented in advance
of this frontal boundary along a pre-frontal trough that was
observed across the Middle Red River Valley of N TX, SE OK and SW
AR.
Believe the severe weather threat (or at least the more widespread
severe weather threat) should end prior to sunrise (if not sooner)
with the frontal boundary by sunrise generally in the vicinity of
where the pre-frontal trough axis exists currently. Convection
should increase in coverage post sunrise with the arrival of the
frontal boundary and the uptick in convective coverage will be
substantiated by the upper forcing in advance of a vigorous upper
trough that will pivot through the Southern Plains today, moving
into the Ohio and Tenn Valleys by this evening and tonight.
Moisture in advance of this trough is plentiful and while some
locally heavy downpours will be possible today given the forcing
in association with the upper trough, an isolated flooding threat
will exist, especially where we get some training of storms today.
However, given how dry our region has been and with Flash Flood
guidance numbers very high, feel like we can take a good rain
without any widespread impacts. Thus, a Flood Watch will not be
necessary with today`s convection.
Will end pops from northwest to southeast this evening and
convection may end earlier in the day across our far northwest
zones. Did hold onto pops across our southeast and eastern zones
for Thursday given the fact that the upper trough axis tries to
cutoff across the Tenn Valley with at least some upper forcing
still apparent across our far southern and eastern zones.
Otherwise, the remainder of the 7-Day Forecast becomes a
temperature one as we should be able to finally kick the 90s to
the curb for a few days, at least through Saturday, even through
we may approach the lower 90s again by Sunday into Monday of next
week and continue that warming trend through the middle of next
week. Going to love the cooler temperatures at night with this
post frontal airmass with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s across most of our region Friday Night through Sunday
Night before that warming trend at night commences later in the
week.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
For the 24/12 TAF period...A line of showers and thunderstorms
developed across SW Arkansas overnight ahead of a cool front and
is currently located at the Louisiana border. Ahead of it,
isolated to scattered showers have developed closer to the I-20
corridor. We should see more convection develop during the mid to
late morning hours and gradually shift southward along the slow moving
cool front. This will bring reduced flight categories to our
sites. Winds will shift to the north behind the front, with skies
gradually lifting towards the end of the period. /20/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Spotter activation for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms
and flooding cannot be ruled out during the daytime hours today with this
threat diminishing quickly during the evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  68  85  67 /  90  30  10   0
MLU  86  68  86  65 /  90  40  20  10
DEQ  82  61  81  59 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  83  65  84  63 /  70  10  10   0
ELD  82  63  83  60 /  90  20  20  10
TYR  81  65  82  63 /  80  10   0   0
GGG  82  65  83  63 /  90  20  10   0
LFK  88  67  87  64 /  80  50  10   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion