Poplar Branch, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS61 KAKQ 051929
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A second, stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday
into Sunday, with additional scattered showers and storms
possible. Cool high pressure builds north of the area Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Summer-like conditions continue with mostly sunny skies and
  highs around 90.
- Mild and a bit more humid tonight with lows in the 60s to
  around 70.
Latest sfc analysis indicates high pressure just offshore of the
mid-Atlantic/southeast coast. Yesterday`s cold front is now a
sfc trough that continues to become more diffuse with time.
Aloft, a broad upper level trough centered over Ontario and the
upper Great Lakes extends from the northern plains into the
OH/TN Valleys at midday. To the west, a strong cold front
extends from Michigan into the Ozarks and the Red River Valley
at midday, with deep-layered SW flow ahead of the front/upper
trough is allowing for warmer and more moist air to be pumped
into the eastern-third of the country. 18z Obs show readings
well into the 80s across inland areas, with low to mid 80s along
the coast. Local afternoon highs reaching the upper 80d to low
90s for most west of the Bay still looking on track. Also a bit
on the humid side, especially compared to the past 10 days or
so, with dewpoints climb toward 70. Skies should be mostly
sunny for the balance of the afternoon, though HRRR Smoke and
regional satellite are both noting some additional hazy
skies/smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires over the next few
hours, especially across the piedmont and I-95 corridor.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s/around 70 under a partly
to mostly cloudy sky. Could see some more fog across the
piedmont late tonight, closer to the washed out front and where
sky cover should remain a bit lower.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A warmer day is expected Saturday, with highs in the lower
  90s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a much stronger cold
  front. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, most
  likely inland and over the MD Lower Eastern Shore.
- Autumnal weather returns to the region on Sunday, with highs
  in the mid 70s and drier air moving back in.
The previously referenced northern stream closed low lifts NE
into Hudson Bay/N QC Saturday, dragging another, stronger front
toward the local area. Ahead of the front, we look to sneak out
one last warm and relatively humid day on Saturday, with highs
in the low 90s W of the bay and mid-upper 80s on the Eastern
Shore. Heat indices should max out in the mid 90s. Clouds start
to gradually increase in the later morning into early afternoon
out in the piedmont, increasing for the rest of the area in the
afternoon and early evening. Expecting showers/storms to
initiate NW of the area in the foothills by early afternoon,
crossing into NW portions of our area mid to late afternoon in
the NW, before progressing SE into the late evening and overnight
hours. The SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of severe weather
for much of the area, just excluding Hampton Roads and NE NC.
As for storm mode, model consensus soundings continue to show
decent lift and instability developing across the region. MLCAPE
values likely increase into the 1500-2000 J/Kg range. Best Deep
layer bulk shear profiles...and overall forcing for ascent in
general...remain oriented to our north/northeast. Nonetheless,
CAMs remain supportive of organized convection with 30-40 kts of
bulk shear available. Storm mode would therefore favor initial
scattered discrete/single cell convection along the pre-frontal
trough Saturday afternoon, with more organized muilti-cellular
line segments favored into Sat evening, with some bowing
segments presenting a damaging wind threat favored. Must be
noted that with sunset now prior to 00z, there will be a more
narrow window for peak instability and severe threat in general,
hence the Marginal Risk outlook orientation farther inland
versus at the coast.
Strong high pressure out of Canada will swoop in behind the front
and return crisp fall air to the local area on Sunday. Look for
highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, along with dewpoints falling
into the low-mid 50s. Low pressure looks to develop along the
front offshore as it exits Sunday afternoon. This could allow
for some lingering showers along the coast, as well as a mostly
cloudy sky for most of the area as the upper trough axis crosses
the area, then quickly weakens and lifts out. Lows Sunday night
will be in the low- mid 50s inland and on the Eastern Shore and
the low 60s in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler weather sticks around early next week.
Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the area early next
week, with a coastal trough lingering offshore. The result will
bring the return of dry, fall-like days for the first half of
next week, along with gusty NE winds (especially along the
coast). Forecast high temperatures remain in the 70s, with lows
in the low 60s along the coast, to 50s inland with a few upper
40s possible well inland each morning from Tue- Wed. Rain
chances remain quite low through the period, though they may
increase across the SE third of the area toward the end of the
period Wednesday into Thursday, as moisture rides north along
the coastal trough as it retreats back toward the coastal plain.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions prevail for the 18z TAF period under a mainly
clear/sunny sky (aside from some increasing smoke aloft AOA
FL150. Southerly winds increase during the late
afternoon/evening, with gusts of ~20kt anticipated at the
coastal terminals, ~15kt at RIC. Winds should diminish again
after sunset. Could have some additional ground fog/MIFG across
the piedmont and around the KECG terminal late tonight. Guidance
has been trending upward with fog/low CIG potential for a few
hours on either side of sunrise Sat morning, as expected cloud
cover lowers overnight, given light winds and light SSW flow.
Outlook: Another chance for late day and evening isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening storms for all terminals on
Saturday, with gusty winds and short-lived VIS/CIG restrictions
possible in heavier showers and storm. VFR conditions return
Sunday through the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Winds are expected to reach Small Craft conditions across the bay
this afternoon.
- Low rip current risk for all beaches tomorrow.
- Additional Small Crafts will be needed Sunday as the cold front
finally pushes through.
Afternoon analysis shows a strong low pressure system over Canada
and a pressure off the east coast. The pressure gradient from these
two systems have tightens through the day causing winds to increase.
As of 3pm winds are between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts starting to
reach upwards of 20 kt. Seas this afternoon are between 2 to 3ft
across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. Later this afternoon
winds and seas will start to increase as the pressure gradient from
the low and high pressure tightens. Winds will increase out of the
S between 15 to 20 kt with some gusts nearing 25 kt. Small Craft
Advisories continue to remain in effect from this afternoon into late
tonight across the bay. There is the chance for a very brief period
of 25 kt gusts across the northern ocean zones again but given the
brief period halted off on any SCA. With the increase in winds seas
will also increase across all coastal waters. Seas will build to 2
to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. There is the
possibility of some 5ft seas across the northern zones. However,
unlike the previous night where winds were more out of the SE and
the longer duration of stronger winds, not expecting seas to rise
above 5 ft for a long duration if they can rise. Again did not issue
any SCA given such a short duration in wind and seas.
Winds are expected to lower by early Saturday morning as the
pressure gradient weakens. However, winds will still remain elevated
between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts nearing but staying just shy of
20 kt. With the winds lowering seas should also lower to 1 to 2 ft
across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean to possibly even 2 to
3 ft in the afternoon. Then by early Sunday a much stronger cold
front is expected to move over the area. A short duration surge is
expected as the front moves over, followed by a lull. Then by late
Sunday into early Monday additional drier and cooler air is expected
to advect over the waters helping create much stronger winds. SCAs
will likely be needed for much of the area at some point Sunday into
Monday. Again there will be another lull in the winds but just
reaming below SCA condition late Monday as a decently strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Looking ahead in the extended
NE winds are expected to prevail as strong high pressure centers
over New England, allowing for winds and seas to increase Tue-
Wed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
As the southerly winds prevail this will allow for Tidal
anomalies to increase reaching .5 feet above normal by tonight`s
high tide cycle. Some nuisance to minor flooding will be
possible late tonight/early Saturday, again mainly in the upper
Bay. The highest high tide looks to be tonight, with minor flood
thresholds possible at Bishops Head. Coastal Flood statements
have been issued for portions of the Northern Neck and of the
Eastern Shore on the bay side. &&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion