Poplar, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

744
FXUS63 KMPX 200649
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
149 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and weak storms on and off throughout the rest
  of today.
- Daily shower chances continue through the weekend, followed by
  seasonal and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Visible satellite showing a well developed low which shrouds
much of the northern plains in cloud cover this afternoon.
Beneath all of this cloud cover are bands of moderate rain
showers and a few pockets of thunder. Periods of rain and
thunder can be expected over the next several hours across much
of central and southern MN and western WI. Overall, the
convective environment does look to be shallow given MLCAPE
values generally less than 500 J/kg meaning widespread thunder
is not expected. A few brief periods of heavy rainfall may occur
given PWATs ranging near 1.3 inches. Additionally, latest RAP
guidance continues to show enough low-level directional shear
coupled with 1kft LCLs, which could potentially develop a few
cold-air funnels near the surface low in west central Minnesota.
As this low pressure continues to meander north- northeastward,
a dry slot should temporarily suppress some cloud cover and
PoPs gradually from southeast to northwest overnight.
As we enter this weekend, the troughing pattern zonally
elongates. Residual lobes of vorticity look to dance around
the broader troughing pattern through at least Saturday
afternoon which will once again produce another round of diurnal
precip. As of now, the best concentration of precip coverage
looks to be aimed across north- central MN over to western WI.
Storm total QPF through Saturday night looks to range between a
half inch to three quarters of an inch. Areas south and west of
the MN River Valley should see closer to a quarter of an inch or
less with a few localized higher amounts sprinkled in. Sunday
through Tuesday will maintain diurnal chances of precip although
not as expansive in coverage as we slowly transition to
northerly flow.
No significant swings in temperatures are expected over the next
several days as the airmass is not changing much day to day.
Highs generally expected to range within the upper 60s to low
70s and lows in the 50s are expected across the area. Winds are
also expected to be light through the period generally 10kts or
less. Come the middle of next week, high pressure looks to take
hold across the northern CONUS which should keep precip chances
well to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Precipitation is mainly confined to western WI at initialization
but the grander scheme is to have fog and low stratus prevail
through sunrise and into the first half of Saturday. Little in
the way of additional precipitation is expected, potentially
late afternoon with some isolated to scattered showers/t-storms
but the driving factor to flight conditions Saturday will be the
fog/stratus. Conditions will likely remain degraded until late
Saturday night into Sunday.
KMSP...While conditions start as VFR, some bouncing to IFR is
likely through sunrise with more stable conditions overnight but
trapping low level moisture in the form of low stratus.
Conditions improve late morning onward, but peak daytime heating
may contribute to instability-driven diurnal
showers/thunderstorms. Nothing widespread or long-lasting is
expected, but enough to maintain the PROB30 mention.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA, mainly P.M. Wind W 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind variable 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion