Pot Creek, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

221
FXUS65 KABQ 301130 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Patchy fog may reduce visibility on roadways early this morning
  in portions of central and eastern New Mexico.
- After a drier and warmer period Tuesday through Friday, rain
  chances will increase this weekend into early next week. Gusty
  south to southwest winds are likely Friday through Sunday as
  well, creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
- Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern
  New Mexico next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The exiting storm system has moved off into the TX Panhandle, with
dry air filtering in from the west. The shortwave ridging combined
with some remnant moisture near the sfc should allow for at least
patchy fog development late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Confidence is highest for the Estancia Basin, Northeast Plains, and
Moreno Valley, but there is a low chance of patchy morning fog along
the east slopes of the entire central mountain chain, upper Rio
Grande Valley, and valleys in the southwest mountains as well. There
could be some impacts to the morning commute, but fog should clear
shortly after sunrise in all areas.
This afternoon, there should be just enough mid-level moisture and
sfc heating for the development of high based showers over the high
terrain of central and northern NM. DCAPE of 300-800 J/kg in the
valleys indicate that there could be a few strong outflow wind gusts
up to 40 mph around the area with little to no wetting rainfall
expected. Given the rising heights, temps will be higher today than
yesterday (2-6 degrees). The warming trend will continue into
Wednesday when highs should be above average areawide. Despite the
warmer temps, it should be a pleasant early Fall day with light
winds, lower humidity, and clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The warming trend will continue into Thursday as subtropical ridging
continues to amplify over northern Mexico. Winds will remain
relatively light as a result with a continuation of the clear skies.
By Friday, a Pacific trough will eject inland into The Great Basin.
Southwest winds aloft will begin increasing and a southerly breeze
will begin to develop areawide by Friday afternoon. Ensemble
guidance is in good agreement about the location of this trough over
the Great Basin, but there are some minor disagreements with regard
to timing. The trough will become neutrally tilted as it approaches
the Four Corners. Dry southwesterlies should limit any precipitation
on Saturday to the northwest high terrain, with higher chances
Sunday and Monday as the base of the longwave trough remains in
place over the Intermountain West after the exit of the initial
shortwave. Gusty south to southwest winds will likely strengthen
over the weekend, with wind gusts potentially as high as 45 mph in
north-central and northeastern NM during the afternoon hours.
All ensemble means are showing widespread precipitation over central
and northern NM Monday through Wednesday of next week. Moisture
levels will be well-above normal for early October, but the flash
flood risk does not look particularly worrisome given the fast storm
motions and modest instability with this pattern. GEFS ensemble mean
PWATs suggests this wet pattern could persist past mid-next week,
keeping above average moisture overhead through the second weekend
of October. Shortwaves embedded within the quasi-zonal pattern will
help to focus where and how much precipitation falls and these
features may begin to become more clear over the next week or so.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Patchy low clouds (IFR to VLIFR cigs) and fog are present across
north-central and eastern NM early this morning and the short-
term trend on satellite shows that these areas will continue to
expand until sunrise when they will rapidly dissipate. Any vis
reductions at TAF sites this morning should be brief.
Isolated showers with gusty outflow winds up to 30kts may impact
portions of central and northern NM near the Continental Divide
and northern mtns between 18Z and 00Z today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A warming trend is on tap Tuesday through Thursday as ridging
amplifies over the desert southwest. Afternoon humidities will
steadily drop in response, but clear nights and efficient radiational
cooling will keep good to excellent RH recoveries around in most
areas. There is a low chance of a few gusty showers in and around
the central and northern high terrain this afternoon, but otherwise
dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the workweek. A
south to southwest breeze will trend stronger late week and over the
weekend in response to a deepening trough over The Great Basin. The
strongest winds will likely be in the northeast where wind gusts
could approach 45 mph. Rain chances may increase over the weekend as
well, with fast moving, gusty showers and storms favoring northern
New Mexico.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  36  75  36 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  71  45  74  44 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  41  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  43  73  45 /   5   5   0   0
Grants..........................  75  44  77  43 /  10   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  74  43  76  44 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  51  76  51 /  20  10   0   0
Datil...........................  72  44  74  45 /  10   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  79  44  81  45 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  50  85  50 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  65  38  69  38 /  20   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  69  49  72  50 /  20   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  69  47  73  47 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  69  43  72  44 /   5  10   0   0
Red River.......................  60  37  63  37 /  10   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  65  32  68  29 /   5   5   0   0
Taos............................  72  41  75  41 /   5   5   0   0
Mora............................  69  42  72  42 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  76  46  79  45 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  70  50  73  51 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  73  48  76  47 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  57  78  58 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  54  80  55 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  54  82  53 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  79  56  81  55 /   5   5   0   0
Belen...........................  80  51  82  50 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  80  54  82  53 /   5   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  80  51  82  50 /   5   5   0   0
Corrales........................  80  54  82  53 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  80  53  82  51 /   5   5   0   0
Placitas........................  75  54  77  53 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  79  55  81  54 /   5   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  81  55  83  55 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  49  74  49 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  72  51  75  51 /  10   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  73  46  76  46 /  10   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  43  77  42 /  10   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  70  47  74  48 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  73  48  75  48 /  10  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  72  48  75  48 /  10   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  75  54  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  69  51  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  72  45  75  46 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  75  43  78  44 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  77  43  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  72  46  75  45 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  79  54  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  75  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  81  53  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  76  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  82  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  82  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  80  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  82  56  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  78  52  83  53 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  77  50  80  50 /   5   0   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion