Powells Crossroads, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

948
FXUS64 KMRX 111051
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Light showers have drifted into portions of the Cumberland Plateau
and western Valley. As such, PoPs were increased over the next few
hours. Based on latest CAM guidance, coverage should dissipate by
late morning. Some sources are showing potential for additional
activity this afternoon. Due to limited confidence, sprinkles were
added in for the time being.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Key Messages:
1. Mostly clear and dry conditions continue with high pressure in
control.
2. Gradual warming trend into the weekend. This weekend and early
next week will have above normal temps.
Discussion:
Currently there are a few very weak, and isolated showers working
their way across Middle Tennessee and south Central Kentucky. This
looks to be weak remnants from convection across the south/central
plains working it`s way into the eastern Tennessee Valley where
there`s just enough instability to keep these showers going. Will
put in low end PoP and drizzle chances for parts of the valley and
Plateau overnight but a sprinkle to 5 minute rain is the most likely
outcome from these showers.
Looking forward, the rest of the week and the weekend continues with
what we`ve been seeing for the first half of this week. Mostly clear
skies, and a gradual warming trend. By Sunday/Monday we could see
many places in the central and southern Valley with temperatures
eclipsing the 90 degree mark... About 5 or so degrees above normal
for this time of year. Good news is that the dewpoints look to
remain in the upper 50`s to low 60`s so it won`t feel as muggy as
when we were last hitting the 90`s regularly in August when the dew
points were closer to 70.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Fog has developed around TRI but should lift in the next hour or
so. Showers have moved in west of TYS and north of CHA but will
largely stay away from the terminals. They will, however, increase
mid-level cloud cover at both sites with ceilings added in around
5,000 feet AGL. Conditions are still expected to stay VFR with
northerly to northeasterly winds of 10 kts or less. Patchy fog is
possible again tonight into Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  62  87  60 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  58  84  57 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  58  84  57 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  51  80  52 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BW

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion