Prague, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS64 KOUN 301642
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1142 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions to persist
   through the coming week.
-  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning this
   weekend.
- Chance for a pattern change next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The shortwave moving through the area is producing mid-level
clouds and some virga. Can not completely rule out a few sprinkles
reaching the ground in southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, but the
probability is rather low. This shortwave will move east of the
area tonight and clearing skies are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
After today`s shortwave moves east, the next shortwave will move
into the central Plains Wednesday, but appears to be too far
north for any significant issues beyond some increase in mid-level
clouds. After this, the upper-level ridge builds in from
northwest Mexico into the central High Plains and daily high
temperature increase again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Most deterministic models and associated ensemble members suggest
a western trough will be located over the far western states
Friday. This feature is expected to move east and north Saturday
into early Sunday with some weakening with time. This will flatten
the ridge over the southern and central Plains and will bring a
low chance of showers/storms to mainly northern Oklahoma. The best
chance for rain over the weekend appears to be in the late
Saturday into early Sunday timeframe. Although the ridge may
rebuild somewhat late in the weekend, a longwave trough is
expected to remain in some form or fashion across the western U.S.
This in time should bring better chances of precipitation and
perhaps a cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions through the period at all sites with light and
variable winds this morning becoming predominantly south-
southeasterly through the day. High clouds will clear from west to
east through the day as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         61  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           61  87  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  88  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  88  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion