Prairie Farm, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS63 KMPX 160533
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue before more seasonable
  temperatures return to end the week.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday
  through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Monday and Tuesday... Latest radar imagery highlights an area of
scattered thunderstorms across western Wisconsin. These storms
developed under an strip of forcing tied to a trough. This
trough and storms will both shift northward and out of the area
over the next 6 to 12 hours. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies
dominate 2/3rds of the CWA with a broken layer across far
eastern and southeast Minnesota. Temperatures have warmed into
the low to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s make it feel
much closer to July or early August than mid September. We`ll
see skies clear out tonight with lows dropping only in the mid
to upper 60s with light SE winds. On Tuesday, we will hit the
peak of our late season warm up. Highs will warm into the upper
80s and a few locations could hit the lower 90s. There could be
isolated showers over W WI, but guidance doesn`t really latch on
to anything. These showers would be more diurnally driven with
the lack of any upper level support and shouldn`t be a real
concern. Overall - a pleasant, warm late Summer day. Enjoy it
while it`s here.
Wednesday through the weekend... Our pattern aloft will slowly
begin to break down. An upper level low over the Dakotas will
tip toe east as the ridging over the Great Lakes region holds
steady. This will set up an unsettled pattern as several rounds
of diurnally driven precipitation is in store for the Upper
Midwest. The NBM maintains 30 to 60 PoPs through 00z Sunday, but
do no plan for a continuous rain. This is an artifact of timing
& placement differences in the various model and ensemble
guidance. The severe weather chances are low, but non-zero. The
lack of synoptic forcing & wind shear means that we`re likely to
end up in the general thunder bin unless a mesoscale feature
can cause a local enhancement (IE an MCV). Temperatures start a
gradual drop Wednesday with highs in the lower 80s and we`ll
"bottom out" in the lower 70s on Saturday before rebounding in
the mid 70s Sunday. This does mean we`ll see temperatures go
from well above normal to just above normal. What is normal
right now? At MSP: Average highs are currently in the lower 70s
and fall to the upper 60s next week. Rainfall amounts will range
from 0.25" to 1.0" with locally higher amounts across western
Minnesota. Looking beyond the next 7 days, ensemble guidance
continues to favor a more northern storm track across Canada.
That should keep things quiet & mild through the end of
September.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Mostly clear skies and southerly winds 5-10kts expected through
the period.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR early. Chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 5-10kts.
THU-FRI...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion