Pride, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

168
FXUS64 KLIX 010500
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase late this week with
   better chances this weekend.
- Winds and seas will increase Thursday through this weekend
   leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions.
- Minor coastal flooding along east facing showers of southeast
   LA, including inside the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county
   expected Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Yet another quiet early morning across the area. Checking out
GOES-16 infrared satellite shows some mid/upper-level cloud cover
across the region ins association with a broad/weak upper-level
low that is meandering east, underneath a large-scale weakness at
the base of ridging over the MS valley. This feature will
continue to drift east through today, as we enter the
upstream/convergent quadrant of the low providing a mostly clear
start to the day. Few items of note for the forecast upcoming
today - namely some CAMs hinting at the potential for a few
scattered showers here and there. Appears targeting best across SE
MS and into coastal SE LA later this afternoon and evening. Took
a deep dive at this looking at moisture profiles aloft, and to
find any lift outside from thermodynamically driven to promote
this potential. Low/mid-level moisture does increase with a slug
of moisture (associated higher PW) presses west from the northeast
later today. Proximity soundings paint a clear picture of the
transitional tropospheric moisture profile, revealing as stronger
H6 inversion/subsidence for western areas and more moisture (less
subsidence) for eastern areas providing slightly better
instability above the LCL following PBL mixing. Just enough
weakness aloft at H5 and very subtle PVA, combined with diurnal
destabilization and developing lake/seabreeze boundary to target
the areas CAMs are suggesting, with NBM PPI01 guidance hinting
well at generally 15-20% PoPs in this region, shifting WSW with
time. Didn`t venture from this suggestion given the aforementioned
reasonings, and could certainly see a few scattered showers
around for a few lucky folks. Just not overly confident on
coverage to uptick PoPs, but will monitor trends.
Thereafter going into tonight and thru Thursday, the pattern
continues to change thanks to strong surface high pressure
1030mb+ building into the NE US. This will help to provide the
development of a moisture channel of greater PW tropospheric
easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula, WNW to the
northern/northwestern Gulf setting the stage for mainly coastal
showers to persist. Thursday PoPs hone in on this around 40-50%
coverage for coastal SE LA, to 20-30% PoPs along the I-10/12
corridor. The mixture of daytime destabilization and greater
moisture aloft will be enough to squeeze out scattered showers and
a few storms in this regime, but northward coverage will be much
more limited away from the best moisture source. Otherwise, no
adjustments needed for temperatures as all looks on track. KLG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Venturing into Friday and the upcoming weekend generally in the
same boat as this corridor of enhanced moisture remains in place
helping to keep rain chances elevated along coastal areas. Seeing
some hint at deterministic guidance attempting at developing a
weak mid-level spin over the NW Gulf, that could help to increase
PVA/associated moisture surging north with time over the weekend.
What this will in turn do is increase rain chances more to the
north each day with notable coverage potential maximized in the
afternoon hours primarily. Might be worthy to note training
convection potential given unidirectional low/mid-level wind
profile aloft. Just remains to be seen how any mesoscale
interactions could lead to some isolated flooding concerns, just
something to monitor but for the most part will be very beneficial
rain for many. Isolated to scattered rain chances persist into
next week as we reside in this slug of moisture aloft supported by
progressive easterly flow east of what would be left of the weak
mid-level spin then over southern Texas. Temperatures remain warm,
but not excessively hot thanks to convective coverage. KLG
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions continue for all terminals and will do so through
the fcst. Winds also continue to remain mainly calm overnight, to
03-06kt from 17Z-23Z Wed. Can`t rule out an ISO/SCT SHRA across
KGPT to KMSY during the afternoon hours Wed, but impacts are
expected to be limited. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Early in the forecast period, winds will begin today primarily
offshore/out of the northeast to transitioning easterly as high
pressure builds south into the NE US. What this will do over time
through the rest of the week is increase the surface pressure
gradient promoting an increase in easterly winds across the northern
and central Gulf. Given the prolonged easterly fetch setting up and
guidance in good agreement in winds reaching 15-20kts Thursday,
becoming more 20-25kts east of the Delta, waves/seas will respond
reaching 6-7ft over 20-60nm zones E and S of the delta, to reaching
9 to 10 feet going into Friday. With a high confidence forecast and
synoptic pattern setting up, went ahead with Small Craft Advisory
headlines for waters along and east of the MS delta and south of the
Sound. This will likely be expanded west with time, and extended in
duration as well. Conditions are expected to improve late into the
weekend and into early next week as winds steadily dissipate and
wave/seas back down. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  66  89  67 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  90  68  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  90  67  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  91  74  91  74 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  90  70  87  68 /   0   0  20  20
PQL  90  67  88  65 /   0  10  20  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ536-538-555-557-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ538-555-557-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion