Prides Crossing, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

015
FXUS61 KBOX 251450
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into this
evening as a frontal system moves into the region. Locally heavy
rainfall may produce street flooding, and can`t rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm in western New Eng. Improving conditions
Friday with increasing sunshine and warm conditions. The weather
pattern is mostly dry this weekend into next week, but watching
showers to the south may impact the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Mostly warm conditions expected into early next week, then a
strong cold front will deliver a fall airmass by next Wednesday
with temperatures well below normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Stay weather aware through this evening.
* Low risk of additional urban flash flooding.
* Continued low risk of severe weather, including a tornado,
  mainly across western MA/CT.
No significant changes from our thinking earlier this morning.
Heaviest rainfall that prompted Flash Flood Warnings in RI and
SE MA this morning was moving offshore and we are starting to
see showers/storms initiate to our west across PA/NY, while more
hit/miss type activity forms in the humid airmass in place
across SNE.
Front is located near South Coast and will make slow progress
northward through afternoon, which will allow airmass to
destabilize in warm sector, especially in western MA/CT where
there is strong model consensus on more widespread
showers/storms into the evening. Environment should feature
limited instability but decent shear so where storms are able to
develop we need to watch for localized wind damage or even a
tornado given sufficient low level helicity along with warm
front being nearby. This is reflected in tornado probs shown by
both Nadocast and CSU ML guidance.
We currently don`t anticipate this being a widespread severe
weather event but certainly we may need to issue a few SVRs
(perhaps a TOR?) or FFWs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Improving conditions with increasing sunshine developing
* Warm and humid
Bulk of rainfall will be offshore by early Fri, but can`t rule out a
few lingering showers across SE New Eng in the morning as weak front
moves through. Otherwise, expect improving conditions with clouds
giving way to increasing sunshine as drier air moves in from the
west. Mid level shortwave moves in from the west late in the day
which could trigger an isolated shower in the interior, but risk is
low. It will be a warm day as 925 mb temps are quite mild, 18-19C,
with W-NW flow developing. Highs should reach upper 70s to lower
80s. Dewpoints will be in the 60s so it will be a summer feel to the
airmass.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Above normal temps this weekend into Monday, then turning much
  cooler by Wed with a touch of fall
* Dry for much of the period, but northern extent of tropical
  moisture may bring a chance of showers Sat night into Sun
* Humberto expected to remain offshore next week
Warm and dry Sat, then will be watching tropical moisture plume lift
northward. GFS is most aggressive and bring a period of showers into
the region Sat night into Sun. Confluent flow is present over
northern New Eng so expect a sharp moisture gradient on the northern
edge which results in a low confidence forecast at this range. Based
on ensemble probs of 0.1" QPF, we have chance showers south of the
MA Pike Sat night into Sun. If showers do develop temps will be
several degrees cooler than current forecast with 60s, but 70s if it
remains dry. Warm weather continues into Monday with potential for
80+, then cold front pushes southward on Tue which will bring a fall
airmass by Wed as strong high pres builds to the north.
The strong front early next week should keep Humberto offshore.
Latest global ensemble tracks are in agreement that Humberto will
remain well to the south before curving offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update:
Today...Moderate confidence.
Widespread IFR-LIFR in showers and fog. Locally heavy rain and
embedded thunder possible. SE wind shifting to S 10-15 kt.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR-LIFR in the evening should improve to MVFR in the interior
overnight. Evening showers expected to diminish overnight. SW
5-15 kt with 20 kt gusts near the coast. Strong 40-45 SW LLJ
will cause windshear concerns especially for coastal terminals.
Friday....High confidence in trends.
Conditions improving to VFR with clouds gradually scattering
out. W wind 5-15 kt.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
IFR/LIFR today with periods of moderate to heavy rain with
embedded thunder possible. Rain comes to an end by 00z tonight,
but CIGS likely remain IFR until near day break Friday. A 40-50
knots LLJ will bring wind shear concerns this evening.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
IFR CIGS today with periods of moderate to heavy showers and
possibly some embedded thunder. Rain should come to an end by
mid afternoon, but CIGS likely don`t improve until closer to
Friday morning
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday...Moderate Confidence.
As low level jet moves into the region, expect increasing S winds
this afternoon becoming SW this evening. Marginal gusts to 25 kt
possible across the waters with building seas to 5 ft over outer
waters. As a result we issued a SCA for this afternoon into tonight.
Winds and seas subside Fri. Expect poor vsbys into tonight with
showers and fog and a few embedded t-storms possible.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Patchy fog.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ231>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KJC

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion