Pudding Creek, California Weather Forecast Discussion

710
FXUS66 KEKA 200727
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1227 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms will
continue to cross the area through Saturday afternoon. Clearer and
drier weather will begin to return Sunday and build through next
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Showers continue to diminish and move offshore into
Saturday morning. Moisture and cloud cover will begin to decrease
Saturday as low pressure wings south of the area, though there
will be potential (10 to 25% chance) for showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon particularly for NE Trinity and NE
Mendocino counties. Drier air and clearer skies will begin to
build more broadly Sunday as northwest wind comes to dominate the
area.
There is high confidence that high pressure will at least briefly
arch over the area next Monday and Tuesday, allowing interior highs
to crest back into the 90s and for a weak, diurnal marine layer to
form along shore. There is a good bit of forecast uncertainty by
mid next week. The majority of models show a cutoff low meandering
into southern California. The impacts of this motion are more
uncertain. While cooler temperatures and greater cloud cover are
a near certainty, there is wide disagreement for rain potential.
While the low will pull moisture up form the south, the general
northeast flow around the low will not be favorable for widespread
wetting rain. And showers that do form will most likely be around
the rim of the Sacramento Valley where the wind best aligns with
the topography. Broadly speaking, there is a 30 to 40% chance of
Wetting rain in southern Mendocino and Lake Counties with a less
than 10% chance further north. The vast majority of models suggest
a cooler and more moist pattern for the end of the month, with
long range predictions of above normal Precipitation. /JHW
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...Considerable variability and uncertainty
continues this TAF cycle as moisture from the remnants of a tropical
disturbance wraps around a complex low over central California.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorm should continue through the
early morning hours of Saturday. VFR ceilings are generally expected
with showers and elevated high based storms. The exception will be
periodic IFR and LIFR conditions at coastal terminals and perhaps
MVFR cigs creeping into the Ukiah area around daybreak. Confidence
in both is low.  Rapid fluctuations between IFR and VFR may occur at
coastal terminals through the day on Saturday as offshore stratus
slowly returns. Solar heating will likely lead to destabilization
and stronger deep moist convection over the interior, mostly Trinity
County, Saturday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...Lighter winds and lower seas are forecast on Saturday,
followed by increasing northerlies and building steep wind waves
Sunday into early next week. Strongest winds and highest seas are
forecast to occur south of Cape Mendocino where gusts to 35 kt and
steep waves near 10 feet will be possible by Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There have been reports of some lightning started
fires yesterday, though otherwise moist and subdued fire weather
conditions will inhibit rapid spread. There will continue to be a
risk (20% chance) of isolated showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday afternoon with the greatest risk over NE Trinity County
and in the Yolla Bollys. A moderate warming and drying trend will
build in early next week with highs returning to the mid 90s. /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion