Quail, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

976
FXUS64 KAMA 091756
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Thunderstorm chances continue today and tomorrow for portions of
  the Panhandles. Storms today may become severe, with large hail
  and damaging winds being the primary hazards.
- Dry conditions are forecast later this week before storm chances
  ramp up this weekend.
- Afternoon high temperatures will consistently be in the 80s to
  low 90s each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts cumulus
building across the higher terrain in New Mexico with isolated
storms attempting to form over that region. Further east for the
Panhandles, temperatures have already warmed up into the 80s for
the entire area with mostly clear skies in place. Moisture will
remain adequate for storm development over the southern High
Plains this afternoon through tonight. Similar to yesterday,
synoptic scale forcing is lacking for today but with temperatures
expected to be a bit warmer, convective temperatures are forecast
to be reached this afternoon. This could lead to isolated to
scattered storms developing by late this afternoon and continuing
into the evening. Some of the 60s dew points that are currently in
place should mix out as we heat up this afternoon, but am
skeptical that dew points will mix down into the mid to upper 40s
that some of the CAMs are depicting. Blended NBM dew points did
quite well yesterday and they are only forecast to drop into the
mid to low 50s, so am keeping those in the forecast for now. In
either case, drier air will be in place at the surface which will
lead to higher DCAPE values so damaging wind gusts will be a
hazard with any storms today. Additionally, MLCAPE along with bulk
shear values will remain sufficient for large hail and
potentially hail upwards of 2 inches should an updraft be able to
sustain itself for long enough. Convection from CO/KS may also
move into the northern Panhandles overnight, but the severe threat
should be well over with by then.
Center of high pressure should be south of the forecast area on
Wednesday with temperatures once again in the upper 80s to low
90s. Mid level moisture should still be present even though drier
air should once again be in place at the surface. Synoptic support
for storms will once again be lacking on Wednesday but storms may
still be able to form off of the higher terrain and move east or
convective temperatures are reached. Either of these scenarios may
result in thunderstorms reaching at least the western Panhandles
during the afternoon into the evening hours. Severe storms are
currently not expected given the lack of instability, but strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with drier conditions in the lower
levels of the atmosphere.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The center of the upper level low pressure system is forecast to be
across northern Nevada late this week with the base of the trough
reaching the Desert Southwest. Over the High Plains, ridging will
remain in place with high pressure over Oklahoma and Arkansas. This
pattern will not be favorable for thunderstorms to develop across
the region so dry conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday. As
the trough lifts east and northeast this upcoming weekend, southwest
flow aloft may allow Pacific and Gulf of America moisture to
increase over the Panhandles. If the base of the trough moves over
the region on Saturday night into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. That looks like the best time frame for
thunderstorms at this time during the long term forecast period
based on the latest suite of global model guidance. Given the fairly
stagnant pattern over the Panhandles, temperatures will consistently
stay in the 80s to lower 90s each afternoon through early next week.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF cycle. Main thing to
watch out for are isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon
through this evening. The potential for storms to move over any
one terminal is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Outside of the storm potential, winds will remain out of the
southwest to southeast around 10-20 kts with occasional higher
gusts.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion