Quartz Ridge Trail, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

160
FXUS65 KGJT 280523
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Afternoon and evening convection continues each day through
  the weekend, possibly beyond. Sunday looks to be the most
  active day.
- Some storms may be capable of producing strong winds as well
  as heavy rainfall, which could impact the recent burn scars.
- Light snow can`t be ruled out for the highest elevations over
  the weekend though no impacts are expected to roadways.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Closed low pressure is currently spinning over the Baja and AZ/CA
state line. Moisture advection has ramped up across the southern
half of the CWA, which is where there is an abundance of clouds as
well as some showers. Breaks in the could should allow for
instability so expect a few more storms to develop. Heavy rainfall,
hail and gusty winds will be possible across the Four Corners
through the afternoon. Nocturnal convection is more likely
tonight with this strong moisture continuing to lift northward
along with any convectively forced mesoscale spins. The models
have continued to slow the arrival of the low pressure, which is
now projected to pass overhead on Monday. Although tomorrow
moisture will cover more of the CWA, so expect a general
increase in showers and storms. CAPE values in some of the CAMs
are 700-1200 j/kg by the afternoon but not sure all of that can
be realized with the amount of cloudiness in place. However
there will be some probability of stronger storms again over the
southern and western part of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
By Sunday night, the closed low will have finally started slowly
moving to the northeast and as this occurs, it will also become an
open wave. Ensembles are in good agreement that precip will continue
through the early evening hours before subsiding heading towards
midnight with the San Juans favored for some continued precip (40%
chance) and only a 20% chance for precip for the central mountains
and surrounding areas. The start of the work week will see unsettled
weather continuing as the open wave remains overhead and the
increased moisture gets worked on as the wave moves through. The
best chances for any convection will be over the higher terrain as
peak heating and the wave provide plenty of lift. Precip is expected
to end late Tuesday night as the next shortwave approaches from the
west. This shortwave will just clip extreme NW portions of the
forecast area, if it does at all. Dry conditions then setup
Wednesday through Thursday. After that, a longwave trough and
surface cold front will be just on our doorstep though some timing
and tracking differences have creeped into the various solutions.
Time will tell. High temps will run a little warm, mostly, during
the long term period as southwesterly flow advects in warmer
temperatures from the south.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a constant threat to
many of the TAF sites through the next 24 hours...with lesser
coverage expected during the overnight hours. VFR remains in
control and this remains in the forecast as well however ILS to
low probability MVFR conditions will be possible when showers
move over an airfield. Widespread high terrain obscuration is
likely as this moisture and active weather moves through into
early next week.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion