Quechee, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

539
FXUS61 KBTV 051757
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and unsettled weather pattern is expected this upcoming
weekend with several rounds of showers anticipated, especially on
Saturday. Additional terrain and lake effect showers are possible on
Sunday across northern New York into parts of central and northern
Vermont. Temperatures will hold mainly in the 60s, except mid 70s on
Saturday in the Connecticut River Valley, with mostly 60s to near 70
on Sunday. Cool and dry weather is expected for the start of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...GOES 19 water vapor shows deep mid/upper
lvl trof acrs the Great Lakes with a vertically stacked low pres
system near Hudson Bay. A well defined mid lvl dry slot has resulted
in mostly sunny skies today, but a narrow axis of moisture and
associated 700-500mb vorticity channel is approaching the eastern
Great Lakes attm. This energy and moisture, along with weak
secondary trof wl swing from west to east acrs our cwa btwn 00z-08z
tonight, with broken line of showers. Have included 30 to 40% to
cover this potential overnight, but given lack of deep layer
moisture, feel areal coverage wl be limited. Soundings suggest good
bl mixing with tightening gradient associated with sfc trof, so not
anticipating much fog development overnight with temps holding in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Warmest in the CPV where southerly winds are
expected to be the strongest.
Our next system for Saturday is a combination of northern stream
energy over the northern Plains and deeper moisture and stronger
dynamics over Iowa, that wl phase together and ride along tightening
thermal boundary to produce widespread rain showers. Noted both
NAM/HRRR show weak sliver of instability developing over southeast
sections, to support an embedded rumble with slightly better
rainfall rates. Most of northern NY and central/northern VT wl be
post frontal with cool strato formed precip anticipated, with temps
holding in the mid 50s mtns to mid 60s valleys, except mid 70s near
VSF. Have coordinated with WPC to remove our entire fa from day 2
ERO, as most of our cwa remains in moderate/severe drought, plus
without instability hourly rainfall rates wl remain below 1/3 hr
ffg, which is 2.0 to 4.5 inches. Total qpf looks to be in the 0.25
to 0.75 with a few localized higher amounts in convective elements
over southern sections near 1.0 possible on Sat.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...Mid/upper lvl trof prevails acrs the
central Great Lakes with strong southwest flow aloft. A potent s/w
is progged to be approaching the SLV around 12z Sunday, combined
with lake enhanced moisture from favorable southwest flow and weak
layer of instability per sounding data, have increased pops over
northern NY into the mtns of central/northern VT on Sunday. In
addition, weak sfc convergence wl help to enhance precip chances,
especially northern dacks and parts of central/northern Vt mtns.
Moisture is limited, so areal coverage should be mostly confined to
the trrn with qpf of a tenth or two at most. Temps are tricky on
Sunday with southwesterly flow here in the CPV, with a few breaks,
feel highs could warm into the lower 70s, while upper 50s to mid 60s
prevail in the trrn with cloudy skies. A few breaks are possible in
the morning, before dynamics arrive. 1026mb sfc ridge builds into
our region Sunday night into Monday, with clearing skies and cooling
temps. Areas of fog/mist are likely toward 12z Monday, as temps cool
back into the mid 30s SLK/NEK to lower 50s near Lake Champlain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...On Monday we will continue to be
under the influence of an upper level trough though a ridge of
surface high pressure will build also. This will lead to a cool
and cloudy day Monday and can`t rule out a light rain shower as
well. Surface high will begin to slide eastward overnight, but
conditions should still be calm enough for some fog formation
early Tuesday morning. Upper level ridge builds over the area on
Tuesday and flow becomes more southwesterly, leading to some
warmer temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. During Wednesday
night and Thursday an upper level trough will cross the region,
along with a very weak surface front. Do not think we`ll see
much more than clouds on Thu, but a slight chance of showers is
included. Temperatures will also be pretty cool Thursday but
will be short lived as southerly return flow develops again on
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds are currently gusting out of the south up to about 25 kts,
strongest at BTV. As surface winds weaken overnight, some low level
wind shear will develop at MPV, EFK and RUT as a jet passes
overhead. There`s a slight chance for some showers overnight, but
did not feel confident enough to include this at any terminals at
this time. Precipitation will lift into the region during the
daytime hours on Saturday, and have indicated some showers moving in
after 12z.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory continues for increasing south winds 15 to
25 knots this afternoon into the overnight hours. As winds
increase waves will build 1 to 3 feet with some higher swells
possible in the open waters. Winds and waves decrease after
midnight tonight.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...BTV

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion