Quinault Lake School Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

083
FXUS66 KSEW 142136
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
236 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will continue to provide dry
conditions along with seasonal daytime temperatures and cool
nights through Wednesday. A weakening front will lead to a chance
of a little rain later Thursday into Friday before a stronger
system arrives over the weekend with rain, wind, and mountain
snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A upper ridge centered
offshore continues to build into southern British Columbia today
for another sunny day with temperatures just a little shy of
seasonal normals. A surface ridge over the interior of British
Columbia combined with low pressure over northern California
continue to funnel breezy north winds through Puget Sound today.
An upper trough over central and southern California will shift
eastward into the Great Basin on Wednesday allowing the ridge
offshore to shift a little closer to Western Washington for more
sunshine and a modest bump in temperatures. Surface gradients will
be light by Wednesday morning which should allow for a little
more morning fog coverage across south Puget Sound and the
Southwest Interior.
The offshore ridge starts to flatten Wednesday night into Thursday
in response to an upper trough entering the Gulf of Alaska. This
will allow a weakening front to reach Western Washington Thursday
night into Friday. The front will have minimal impact by the time
it reaches the area with only a few hundredths of QPF expected across
the lowlands east of the Olympic Peninsula.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...While the initial front
won`t have much in the way of impact, it will, however, set the
stage for a more active pattern this weekend. The offshore ridge
is expected to give way as a 150+ knot jet stream carves out a
broad upper trough over the northeast Pacific. This is expected to
push a relatively strong frontal system into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Snow levels will be initially high in the
warm sector of the system. Ensembles show a considerable spread in
the QPF amounts with this system, but there`s enough concern to
warrant a day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the Weather
Prediction Center for portions of the Olympic Peninsula. Snow
levels are expected to fall back to the higher passes behind the
front on Sunday.
Ensemble height anomalies lend a high degree of uncertainty to
the forecast Monday and beyond. As such, a generic "chance of
showers" forecast is a good compromise at this time.
27
&&
.AVIATION...A transient upper level ridge will tilt northeast today
with north flow weakening tonight into Wednesday. Surface high
pressure is parked underneath this ridge in southern B.C.. Clear
skies/VFR continue this afternoon into tonight with north winds
weakening through tonight from 8-12 kt this afternoon, down to under
5 kt (many will see light/variable or calm winds tonight). While
gradients will be weaker tonight with calm winds, the risk for fog
remains very low due to dry dewpoints still in the region with the
lightly offshore pattern. If any fog mist forms, it is likely that
it will be patchy in nature and the most likely areas to see any are
terminals in the south Cascades, and the south interior. Otherwise,
VFR is expected into tomorrow with light northwest winds 3-6 kt.
KSEA...VFR is expected through the TAF period. North-northeast winds
6-12 kt will become light tonight into Wednesday morning, becoming
light out of the northwest 3-6 kt Wednesday afternoon.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...Northerly or weak offshore flow across the waters will
weaken tonight as an area of low pressure to south of the area
departs and an offshore surface ridge expands into the coastal
waters. A weak front will arrive Thursday night into Friday with
little to no impact. A much stronger frontal system will reach
the waters Saturday night into Sunday with headlines expected for
most of the waters. Coastal seas will build into the double digits
this weekend and could exceed 15 feet by later Sunday.  27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion