Raccoon Bend, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

582
FXUS64 KHGX 231837
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
137 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  afternoon.
- A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms on
  Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall (isolated totals of 3-5") and
  a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Damaging
  winds are the primary severe threat.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Another hot and humid day is unfolding across the region today.
Ambient temperatures are forecast to peak in the low 90s with
dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in heat
index values in the low 100s. This airmass is also largely
uncapped in the lower troposphere, so it is not taking much lift
to trigger shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitation
coverage should be greatest in the early-to-mid afternoon, and
over the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area along and
ahead of an easterly moving cluster of storms. PWAT values are
around 2" with warm cloud depths up to about 4-5 km, so brief
heavy downpours are expected with any passing shower. Severe
weather is not expected, but a few wind gusts to 30-40 mph are
possible with the strongest cores. Precip coverage will start to
wane with the loss of heating this evening.
Once precip starts to taper off locally, our attention will turn
north where a disorganized line/cluster of storms is expected to
develop along a cold front over North Texas this afternoon. This
line of storms should move south overnight, approaching our
northern counties around sunrise tomorrow. Well ahead of the
front, isolated early morning showers are expected to develop over
the Gulf and move into our coastal counties in the few hours
straddling sunrise.
The initial line of storms that moves into our area should be well
in advance of the cold front. Due to this, it should marginally
weaken after sunrise as the low-level inflow veers and lessens
moisture flux feeding the storms. This downward trend in precip
coverage will be short-lived as surface heating ramps up and helps
initiate widespread showers and storms in a couple favored areas
tomorrow. The first favored area is near the remnants of the
outflow boundary left behind by the morning convection over the
northern portions of the forecast area. This cluster should then
move south over the course of the day. The second favored area is
near the coast where seabreeze activity ramps up by mid-to-late
morning. This activity should mainly stay near the coast, with
individual cells moving ENE. Eventually these two areas will form
a nearly continuous line of shower and thunderstorm activity,
roughly near the I-10 corridor in the mid to late afternoon. Once
this line forms, expect it to move south into the Gulf in the
evening hours.
There is a low threat of damaging winds/localized downbursts
tomororw afternoon, but the threat of organized supercells and
widespread severe weather is low. Average rainfall totals of
1-1.50" forecast for the northern tier of counties and locations
near/south of I-10. There is potential for a few training storms,
with isolated rainfall totals (approx 10% coverage) of 3-5".
Those in heavily urbanized areas are encouraged to pay attention
to the weather tomorrow and monitor the NWS, local media, HCFCD,
and other official weather information sources for the latest
information. Because we have two favored areas for precip
development with a slight lull between the two, some locations
between about College Station and Conroe will end up receiving
less than 0.25" of rain, if that.
As alluded to above, the cold front will trail behind the leading
convection, but it will eventually move through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few trailing showers will
remain possible near the coast overnight and Thursday morning, but
drier air will filter in and choke off precip chances by the late
afternoon. The cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures
late this week and this weekend, but it will not be a drastic cool
down. We joked in the office that it might bring "sweaty" sweater
weather if you really want to wear a sweater, though! The front
will knock dewpoint temperatures into to low 60s, making it feel
great outside despite highs in the upper 80s. High pressure will
prevail locally through the weekend into early next week, with a
subtle warming trend as we head into the new week. Most of the
area will be dry after tomorrow, but scattered daily showers are
possible over the Gulf, then the coastal zones early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will continue until sunset, but should
move away from Houston terminals by 23Z. Expect generally VFR
conditions overnight with winds staying up precluding any fog
development. MVFR ceilings are expected after 10Z at most terminals,
with VCSH for KGLS as showers develop along the coast. Wednesday
will be a convectively active day across southeast Texas as deep
moisture (PWS 2.2-2.4 inches) pool ahead of a cold front which will
move into the area. A band of SHRA/TSRA will develop ahead of the
front. Timing for greatest chance of convection will be 15-20Z at
KCLL/KUTS, 19-23Z for the Houston area terminals, and 21-02Z for
KGLS. Visibilities of 1-2SM and wind gusts 30-40kts will be possible
in the strongest storms.
35/MM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Moderate south to southeast winds along with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. On Wednesday, winds
will shift out of the southwest ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will also bring more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A few
stronger thunderstorms capable of gusty winds are possible. Winds
become more northerly in the front`s wake on Thursday and Friday.
Winds are expected to be moderate to strong at times, warranting
caution flags.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  90  70  87 /   0  80  50  20
Houston (IAH)  78  92  73  87 /   0  80  80  40
Galveston (GLS)  83  87  76  86 /  10  80  90  70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonnette
AVIATION...35/MM
MARINE...Bonnette

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion