Raccoon Bend, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

486
FXUS64 KHGX 211113
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Showers/Storms along the coast with isolated showers and storms
  inland.
- Slight warming trend going into early next week, but we hang
  onto the rain chances.
- Monitoring the potential for a midweek cold front that may bring
  drier air and cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tomorrow marks the first day of Astronomical Autumn! We will start
the next season off with another day of showers and thunderstorms
(though, PWATs are coming in a bit lower than initially
predicted). With lower PWAT values, not expecting coverage to be
as scattered, and coverage should mainly be along the coastal
counties; however any outflow boundaries along with the sea breeze
could create opportunities for storm development further inland
during the afternoon hours Sunday. Going into next week, moisture
does begin to increase as do the rain chances, particularly around
midweek. Models continue to show the potential for a midweek cold
front (looking like sometime Wednesday/Thursday). The FROPA could usher
in some drier and cooler air near the end of the week(yes,
please!).
Temperatures through midweek will be on the warmer side with highs
in the 80s to 80s and lows in the 70s. There is some uncertainty
with how the temperatures will respond to the midweek cold front.
There is a medium to high probability of temperatures dipping
below 70s degrees Wednesday during the nighttime hours for the
Metro through the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. For the Coastal
locations...not looking likely (less than 10% chance).
As for daytime temperatures, there are similar probabilities that
the above locations will experience highs below 90 degrees
beginning Wednesday. This excludes the coastal areas which have
been observing temperatures in the 80s even without the impacts
from a frontal system.
While still not a "for certain" forecast, it is at least some
glimmer of hope for us cold weather folks that summer is coming to
a close and fall weather is on the horizon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed over
the coastal waters, and this activity will be expanding inland
through the late morning/early afternoon. Coverage will be highest
south of I-10, so went with VCSH with PROB30 of TS for any
terminal south of I-10. Did include a PROB30 of TS at IAH for this
afternoon as an isolated storm may reach north enough to pass near
IAH. Activity is expected to diminish with sunset, but isolated
coastal showers will begin again near sunrise tomorrow.
VFR conditions will prevail with south-southeasterly winds around
7-12kt through the period. Patchy fog may impact CXO and LBX like
the past few days.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
No major changes to the forecast to note. Light to occasionally
moderate southeasterly winds and 2 to 4 foot seas will prevail
going into early next week. Winds become southwesterly to westerly
around midweek as a frontal boundary approaches. Northerly flow
is expected towards the end of the work week. Chances for showers
and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Mariners should be advised that a couple of waterspouts were
reported earlier today (Saturday) in Galveston Bay. Model
guidance depicts some potential for showers/storms paralleling the
coastline as early as Sunday morning, so the waterspout potential
carries on into Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  73  94  73 /  20   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  91  75  91  76 /  50  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  81 /  50  30  50  30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Adams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion