Radford, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

521
FXUS61 KRNK 261925
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
325 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the eastern
portion of our area today. Scattered showers/storms will again be
possible this afternoon, mainly south of US-460. A disturbance will
develop and move north into the area this evening into the
overnight, bringing heavy rainfall to most of the area through
Saturday evening with lower rain chances for Sunday. Next week,
all eyes turn to the tropics, as Invest 94L is expected to
develop and move towards the Carolina coastline. Impacts may be
felt in our area, but exact details are still unknown,
depending on the track and intensity of the system. Nonetheless,
heavy rainfall will be possible through the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers/storms possible this afternoon, mainly south of US-460.
2) Heavy rain moves in tonight, lasting through Saturday evening.
3) A slight risk for excessive rainfall is in place for parts of the
area through Saturday.
Most of the area is quiet this afternoon, though showers and a few
thunderstorms are beginning to develop in the southern VA mountains
down into NC. This continues through the afternoon into this evening
as a low pressure system develops along a stalled frontal boundary
draped across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. This low
pressure wave will move north, bringing widespread
showers/storms through the area overnight, with the best chances
along/east of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall will be heavy, with
over an inch expected along the Blue Ridge, and locally higher
amounts in the heaviest convection. Patchy fog will be possible
tomorrow morning, with dreary conditions persisting for much of
the day. The heaviest rainfall moves out mid-morning, though
scattered showers and a few storms will continue until late
afternoon as the disturbance moves off to the northeast and the
stalled front drifts east towards the coast.
Severe weather is not expected during the period, but flash flooding
will be possible with slow-moving, heavy rainfall. A slight risk for
excessive rainfall is in place across southern VA down into NC
today, and for tomorrow for the eastern Piedmont. A marginal
risk is across the entire area for tonight and again on
Saturday. Isolated flash flooding could occur in urban and low-
lying, flood-prone areas.
Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly above normal, thanks to
some clearing of skies. Highs will be in the 70s for the mountains
with low 80s in the Piedmont. Overnight lows will stay mild, as rain
and clouds move in, mainly in the 60s. On Saturday, highs will be
cooler thanks to the heavy cloud cover, in the 70s area-wide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Sunday will be the quietest day of the period.
2) The first impacts from Invest 94L could reach the area late
Monday.
Rain will be clearing out of the area Saturday night, with quieter
weather returning to the region heading into Sunday. The stalled
frontal boundary will be along the East Coast, and drier air will
limit convection Sunday afternoon. Scattered storms will still be
possible, thanks to the upper trough remaining overhead along with
diurnal heating effects. This continues through Sunday night as the
attention turns towards Invest 94L, which is expected to then be a
tropical system and moving towards the Carolina coastlines.
Exact details about Invest 94L are still uncertain, as the system
has yet to develop. Potential tropical moisture, enhanced by 94L,
could be moving into the area on Monday, with heavy rainfall
expected, particularly for our southern Piedmont areas. Monday night
could be the height of heavy rainfall across the area, though recent
model runs suggest 94L may stall off to our south, with the moisture
advection being the largest impact for our area.
Whether the system makes it fully into our area or not, heavy
rainfall is possible late Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-2"+ is
possible east of the Blue Ridge, with locally higher amounts
possible. Flash flooding could occur, as with any tropical system,
and the entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday, due to less cloud cover.
Highs will be in the 70s area-wide. Highs Monday will fall a few
degrees, with 60s for the mountains and low 70s elsewhere. Overnight
lows remain mild, in the 50s/60s each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Low confidence in rainfall potential through midweek.
2) Showers/storms possible through midweek, drier end to the week.
3) Temperatures will be below normal through late week.
By Tuesday, our area could still be seeing impacts from Invest 94L
as it likely stalls over the Carolinas. With the low confidence in
track and strength, it is difficult to forecast how high or low the
impacts will be across the Mid-Atlantic. What there is high
confidence in, is that tropical moisture will advect into the area
at a minimum through midweek, keeping showers/storms possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could occur across parts of
the area, all dependent on the track and strength of 94L. Until the
system has developed, confidence will remain low in the forecast.
For now, PoPs are around 50% on Tuesday, lowering to 20-30%
Wednesday as a strong high pressure from the north blocks the
northward advancement of 94L and begins to clear out the region.
There is also low confidence in the late week forecast, as the
remnants of 94L could linger across the Southeastern US and
potentially move into our area again late week. Models do indicate
that the strong high over the Northeast US will wedge down east of
the Appalachians and keep cooler weather in place. This forecast
could drastically change depending on the track of 94L.
Temperatures will be below normal, with highs in the 60s/70s
midweek, cooling into the 60s area-wide late week. Overnight lows
stay mild Wednesday morning, in the 50s/60s, before dramatically
falling late week into the 40s. Some of the higher elevations may
fall into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...
Most terminals are in VFR flight conditions, though with some low
clouds, are back and forth between MVFR/VFR. Cigs will slowly rise
but remain in low VFR status this afternoon. Scattered
showers/storms will be possible between 20z this afternoon and 00z
Saturday at all terminals but LWB. Any convection will temporarily
increase wind gusts and lower VSBY and cigs to sub-VFR. A low
pressure system moves into the area tonight, with showers and a few
storms spreading across the area from south to north. DAN will see
rain first, with the other terminals soon following, with widespread
heavy rainfall expected through the night and into Saturday morning.
Patchy fog will also be likely in the morning, though lowering cigs
will also cause low VSBY after 06z. IFR/LIFR flight conditions will
be at each terminal through much of the morning, until the heaviest
rain moves out closer to midday. Although VSBY will improve, low
clouds with rain showers will persist through the end of the period,
keeping flight conditions in IFR/MVFR. Outside of thunderstorm
gusts, winds and wind gusts through the period will remain below 10
knots.
Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Scattered rainfall will continue Saturday afternoon into the
evening, which combined with low cigs, will keep flight conditions
down to sub-VFR, with some IFR/LIFR also possible in any heavier
convection. This continues through early Sunday morning, with
patches of fog again possible. Sunday looks to be the quietest day,
though afternoon showers/storms will once again develop, but
coverage will be isolated to scattered at best. Any showers/storms
would cause sub-VFR flight conditions when impacting a terminal.
Early next week, the forecast is complex, but it is looking more
likely that at least some impacts from a tropical system will
approach the area from the southeast. While confidence is low in the
exact impacts, heavy rainfall will could be possible at times
through midweek, which would cause widespread sub-VFR flight
conditions for all terminals.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion