Ragged Mountain Trail, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

402
FXUS61 KCAR 050718
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
318 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains south of the region through Monday. A
cold front approaches Tuesday, crosses the area Tuesday
night, then exits Wednesday. High pressure builds toward the
region Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will lift north of the region today. Surface high
pressure will remain centered south of the region today through
Monday. Aloft, a disturbance will clip northern Maine this
morning in advance of a building ridge. The upper level ridge
then builds across the region tonight into Monday. Expect partly
sunny skies, with isolated showers also possible, across
northern Aroostook county this morning. Otherwise, generally
expect mostly clear skies across the forecast area today
through Monday. Patchy fog is also possible, mostly Downeast,
tonight. Record warm temperatures are possible both today and
Monday. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s
to around 80 north, to the mid to upper 70s interior Downeast
with lower to mid 70s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures
tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 50s across
the forecast area. High temperatures Monday will range from
around 80 to the lower 80s across much of the forecast area,
with mid to upper 70s along the Downeast coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure south of our area will continue to bring a very warm
southwesterly return flow across the region Monday night. This will
result in a very mild night under the glow of the harvest moon
with lows in the low to mid 50s.
A southwesterly flow will continue on Tuesday as high pressure south
of the area slides out to sea and a cold front begins to approach.
Tuesday will be another very warm day ahead of the front with inland
highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Clouds will increase from
northwest to southeast ahead of the front and showers will begin to
push into the area from the west late Tuesday afternoon. The NAM is
pushing CAPES up to 600 J/KG while the GFS is showing too much
capping to support any CAPE. Will keep a slight chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Tuesday with the best chance for
some convective elements across the central and northern highlands.
The cold front pushes across the area Tuesday night. Sharp frontal
convergence and moisture ahead of the front should support a solid
line of showers along the front. Forecast guidance continues to show
the potential for a bit of enhancement from a shallow shortwave
disturbance approaching from the west as the front moves though.
Rain amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch are likely
with localized bands up to an inch.
Rain ends across the north by early Wednesday morning and tapers off
Downeast around midday. High pressure will follow from Central
Canada pushing cooler and drier air in behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cool Canadian high pressure building in from the west will
bring a blustery and cold night Wednesday night with lows by
Thursday morning below freezing in the northwest and down to the
30s Downeast.
Canadian high pressure dropping to our west will bring a mostly
sunny, brisk and cool day on Thursday with highs in the 50s across
the area. High pressure will continue to our south Thursday night
into Friday. This will bring a chilly night Thursday night followed
by a breezy day on Friday in the return flow behind high pressure
and ahead of a new front.
A new cold front may begin to approach Friday night. Most of the
models slide this front off to the Northeast with the GFS bringing
the front closer than the ECMWF. This looks like a dry frontal
passage with the high to our south not having enough time to carry
moisture back into the area in the return flow.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any patchy fog early this
morning, then again late tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise,
VFR today through Monday. Isolated showers possible across
northern Aroostook county this morning. South/southwest winds 5
to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots both today and Monday. Southwest winds 5 to 10
knots tonight.
SHORT TERM:
Monday night...VFR north. VFR possibly lowering to IFR in low
stratus across the south. SW wind.
Tuesday...VFR north, possibly lowering to MVFR in showers late.
IFR to MVFR in low clouds over the south. SW wind.
Tuesday night...IFR in low clouds and showers. SW wind, shifting to
NW over the north early and W over the south late.
Wednesday...VFR north. IFR becoming MVFR then VFR south. Gusty NW
wind.
Wednesday night...VFR. Gusty NW wind.
Thursday...VFR. Gusty NW wind.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through Monday. Patchy fog possible later tonight into Monday
morning.
SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday into Tuesday
night for SW winds gusting over 25 kt. Seas will build to 4 to 5
ft Tuesday and 5 to 6 ft Tuesday night in response to the
southwesterly wind. Humid air over the cooler water may result
in some mist and fog into early Wednesday morning. Good vsby
should return Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers possible across northern Aroostook county this
morning. Otherwise, dry today through Monday with record
warmth possible. A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into
Wednesday, when rainfall of a quarter to three quarters of an
inch is likely. South/southwest wind gusts up to around 20 mph
are expected Sunday/Monday/Tuesday afternoons. Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much
cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for today, Sunday October 5th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou              77/2005           78
Bangor               81/1946           78
Millinocket          82/1916           78
Houlton              78/2007           75
Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               74/1946        81
Bangor                84/1946        83
Millinocket           82/1946        82
Houlton               73/1957        82
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        78
Bangor                84/1946        78
Millinocket           81/1946        79
Houlton               76/2016        78
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer
Fire Weather...
Climate...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion