Ramsey Cemetery North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

375
FXUS62 KGSP 131750
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift offshore through mid week as dry and
warmer high pressure builds in across the region. This will allow
for a return of above normal temperatures through Wednesday. A
backdoor cold front drops south across the area Thursday bringing a
brief cool down before temperatures warm again over the weekend. The
next chance for rain may come on Sunday as an upper trough crosses
our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:35 PM EDT Monday: The shield of lower stratocu over the
I-77 Corridor has mostly lifted/sct over the past few hrs with
mostly sunny skies across the bulk of our fcst area. Plentiful
sunshine coupled with increasing thickness values/rising heights
should allow high temps to approach 80 degrees outside of the mtns
this afternoon. Less cloud cover and the relatively dry airmass
along with decoupling sfc winds, will allow lows overnight to
cool to just above normal. The better radiational cooling condi-
tions should also help produce more fog/low stratus in the mtn
valleys Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, the embedded upper trof/closed low currently centered
over our area will eventually lift NE and off the Atlantic Coast
later tonight and into Tuesday. In its wake, stout upper ridging
will spread further eastward and over the Southeast. At the sfc,
the stacked/occluding low just off the SC Coast is expected to
finally shift east and further offshore later today/tonight. In
its wake, broad sfc high pressure will spread into our area from
the west and linger thru the near-term period. This should keep
us dry with temperatures continuing to gradually warm on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday: A large, highly amplified upper ridge will
extend from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest thru the
short term. Shortwave energy will round the ridge axis and dive
thru the Great Lakes, helping carve out an upper low invof Maine
and New Brunswick. Wednesday will be warm and sunny, with highs
around 10 deg above normal. Then a dry backdoor cold front will
slip thru the area Wednesday night, as sfc high pres builds into
the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. The front may not even
have any clouds with it, and just bring temps back down to near
normal for Thursday and Friday. Dry weather will continue thru the
end of the workweek, with mountain valley fog possible each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday: Upper ridge axis will begin to shift east
this weekend, shifting from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern
Seaboard by late Saturday. Corresponding sfc high will also shift
east, allowing a return flow to spread across the region and bring
temps back above normal. The latest deterministic guidance is in
better agreement on a deep longwave trough ejecting out of the
Rockies and becoming negatively tilted across the Ohio Valley by
Sunday. An attendant cold front will push thru the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and pick up speed as it crosses the OH/TN Valleys Saturday
night thru Sunday. Such dry air out ahead of the cold front may
result in a thinning frontal band of moisture. This may limit
QPF and any thunderstorm chances by the time the front reaches
the forecast area. Models are in decent agreement on the fropa
occurring Sunday with little to no sbCAPE. The NBM PoPs look good,
with high-end chc to low-end likely PoPs in the mountains Sunday,
tapering to just 20-30% chance in our eastern zones. Temps will
be near to a few deg above normal Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Drier air filtering into the fcst area and
winds out of the N to NW has resulted in a broad field of few to
sct fair-wx cumulus in the 3500 to 4500 ft range this afternoon.
Conditions should be favorable for mtn valley fog/low stratus to
develop again early Tuesday. The main thing working against re-
strictions developing at KAVL will be NW winds expected to re-
main > 5 kts thru the overnight/morning over much of the French
Broad Valley. Thus, confidence remains low on timing/magnitude of
any restrictions at KAVL. For now, I limit restrictions to 5SM/
FEW005 from 09 to 13z. Otherwise, expect dry VFR conditions thru
the 18z taf period. Winds will remain NLY to NWLY thru tomorrow
morning, becoming more NELY tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook: Expect mostly dry, VFR conditions to persist thru the week,
except for the potential for mountain valley fog and/or low stratus
each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion