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Ramsey Cemetery South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS62 KILM 140602
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 202 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build through Wednesday leading to a warming trend. A passing dry cold front Wednesday night will usher in the coolest air since Spring. The late week period will feature another warmup until the next cold front arrives Sunday night.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Surface and upper low off of the NC/VA coast will continue to push offshore today. Subsidence on the western periphery of the system will reinforce an inversion around 800 mb. While subsidence is working its way southward for the afternoon, vorticity advection early this morning should maintain mid and upper level cloud cover. Despite dry air pushing southward and scouring mid to upper level clouds during the afternoon, moisture beneath the inversion will remain trapped and should prolong mostly cloudy skies.

While light showers are not expected today, the depth of the cloud layer and remnant upper level energy may be enough to squeeze out a few brief sprinkles. I have added a 10% chance of rain following HREF theta-e convergence. Any showers that develop are unlikely to produce the requisite QPF, but will be noticeable from a functional standpoint. Models may be under-doing the moisture within the boundary layer which also prompted a minimal increase in PoPs.

Clouds and north winds will keep afternoon highs in the lower 70s over the eastern half of the CWA and mid 70s over the western half. NBM is showing the potential for upper 70s inland, but it is likely under-representing cloud cover. Winds are unlikely to change in strength today due to the upper level energy available during the morning and low level mixing during the afternoon. Dry air should overcome the remaining patches of clouds tonight. Boundary layer winds remain elevated overnight, so temperatures won`t cool to their clear-sky potential; expect lows in the mid and upper 50s.

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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none *Temps: near normal Wed, then below normal Wed night thru Thu night

Confidence: *High

Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Dry conditions are expected with high pressure prevailing. An air mass change will occur Wed night with drier/cooler conditions expected through Thu night. Still likely to see the coldest temps since the spring on Thu night where inland areas should drop into the mid 40s, with some of the normally colder spots possibly even dipping to near 40.

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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none, except very low late Sun/Sun night *Temps: below normal, except near to above normal Sat night thru Sun night

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Dry and cooler high pressure will prevail late week with below normal temps. Warmer and moister conditions will then return briefly starting Sat night as high pressure moves offshore and a southerly flow develops. Low rain chances with very low rain amounts/thunder chances should return late Sun and Sun night associated with a quick-moving cold front which will bring cooler and drier conditions again Mon.

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.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in VFR dominating early this morning. Can`t rule out some shallow fog over northeastern SC (and where heavy rain occurred in Columbus County, NC) where soils remains wet and winds remain calm. Mid level clouds and an increase in boundary layer winds following energy around an upper low to our north and east should prevent fog over NC. Dry air in the mid levels should also prevent stratus. Again, brief IFR restrictions will be possible, but too brief to include in the TAF.

Cumulus should increase this morning. These clouds are likely to hang around 2-3k feet AGL through the afternoon and thus MVFR restrictions are possible for a large portion of the day. Subsidence later in the day should bring widespread VFR tonight. Low potential for some stratus late tonight, although low level dry air may limit coverage.

Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the remainder of the week.

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.MARINE... Through Tonight... Winds remain elevated today as the area of low pressure gradually pushes offshore. Expect gusts around 20-25 knots today under cloudy skies. Northerly flow over the nearshore waters will surge this evening and could get close to SCA thresholds. Gusts to 25 knots are not expected to be frequent enough to hoist the advisory at this time and seas will be agitated, but still below the threshold at around 4-5 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday...Moderate to high confidence through the period. High pressure from the north will prevail through Fri before it shifts offshore. Elevated winds/seas will continue near Small Craft Advisory levels at times into Thu due to cooler/drier air moving into the area, especially in the NC waters.

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.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.

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SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...21 MARINE...RJB/21

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion

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