Raspberry Lake Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS63 KMKX 150246
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
946 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A period of light rain is expected for much of southern
  Wisconsin tonight. The chance of rain quickly lowers Wednesday
  morning.
- Active end to the week with breezy conditions and several
  opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday
  through Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 945 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Numerous rainshowers currently spanning east-west across
central portions of the state will gradually build southward
through the rest of the area overnight, leading to widespread
light rainfall accumulations, around 0.1 to 0.3 inches in most
areas. The rain should wrap up in a north to south manner
throughout Wednesday morning, leaving most areas dry by around 9
AM.
Sheppard
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Tonight through Wednesday night:
A weak 500mb wave and 850mb WAA and fgen will slide east and
southeast over the region this afternoon into tonight. While
thunder isn`t expected, rain will occur over the area, with
accumulation between a tenth to a quarter of an inch into
tomorrow morning. Precipitation should then slowly shrink and
dissipate Wednesday morning. Conditions should then remain dry,
before WAA driven rain move in from the west early Thursday.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Thursday through Tuesday:
WAA related rain is expected to lift northeast of the area
during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will rise for Friday,
with highs in the upper 70s and breezy south winds. A cold front
is then expected to move in Friday into Saturday, with varying
solutions across the global models regarding timing. Euro and
Canadian solutions favor a slower frontal progression that would
have showers and thunderstorms lingering through Saturday
afternoon, while the GFS pushes the front through quickly by
Saturday morning, leading to a relatively dry Saturday. Given
model discrepancies, it is a bit too early to definitively
answer whether or not Saturday will be dry. Trends will be
monitored heading toward the weekend.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 945 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Numerous rainshowers currently span from west to east across
central portions of WI. These are expected to gradually build
southward through the rest of the overnight hours, then clear
out in a north to south fashion throughout Wednesday morning.
Though all METARS presently indicate VFR ceilings, a gradual
decline in ceiling altitude is expected as the rainfall arrives
and continues, likely leading to predominantly MVFR later
overnight with chances for periods of IFR. Far southeastern WI
may get away with predominantly VFR ceilings due to the later
arrival of rainfall, though MVFR and even IFR are still on the
table. Surface visibilities currently 10SM all areas, with the
overcast ceilings preventing fog formation, and the rain barely
affecting visibility at all. That said, we cannot rule out a
few areas of fog or mist leading to restricted visibility,
mainly in central and east-central WI where rain has already
arrived. Northeast winds continue overnight, a bit gusty by the
Lake MI shoreline, a few gusts over 20 KT recently reported.
Mostly dry from mid Wednesday morning onwards as the rainshowers
clear out north to south. MVFR ceilings linger towards central
and southwestern WI through much of the morning, with gradual
improvement into the afternoon. Light easterly to northeasterly
winds. Dry weather continues through at least Wednesday evening.
Sheppard
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 253 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
High pressure of 30.5 inches over northern Minnesota will sink
southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes region through Thursday
morning. As this happens, breezy north winds will occur tonight,
with speeds easing going into Wednesday. Winds remain light going
into Thursday, but should come around to southeasterly and become
breezy again Thursday night into Friday morning as low pressure of
29.3 inches moves into south central Canada.
CMiller
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM
     Wednesday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion