Rawlings, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

751
FXUS61 KLWX 291340
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
940 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south from eastern Canada through much of the
week. A strong cold front will track across the area Tuesday
night bringing cooler and drier weather for the middle and
latter part of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track for today. Watching very light
showers moving into Southern MD, though this will likely be
drizzle at this time. Highs this afternoon reach the 70s to
around 80F (warmest temps will be along the MD/PA border).
Southerly upper level flow ahead of an upper level trough to
our southwest will continues to transport high level clouds into
area. Moisture being drawn northward ahead of Imelda will
begin to interact with an upper level trough to our west to
bring light rain tonight, possibly reaching as far north as the
Potomac River. However, only areas down by Charlottesville and
Nelson County seem like a lock to get decent measurable rain.
Rainfall amounts of a quarter up to half inch are possible from
Charlottesville south, while areas to the north may only see a
trace up to a tenth of an inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture from Imelda will start pulling away from the area
Tuesday morning with rain completely out by Tue afternoon,
although high level clouds will be slower to depart the area. A
sharp cold front will cross the area Tue night bringing a
noticeable cooling trend for the middle portion of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model spread is fairly low through the long term period as strong
Canadian high pressure builds along the east coast. A large upper
level ridge keeps the jet stream well to the north and the weather
dry. Temperatures will be below normal Thursday and Friday. The
ridging shifts slightly eastward over the weekend, allowing
southerly flow to bring a warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thickening high level clouds through tonight with light rain or
sprinkles possible late tonight into Tue morning, but no flight
restrictions expected. A strong cold front will cross the area
Tue night bringing a notable increase in northerly winds.
No significant weather is expected Thursday and Friday as strong
high pressure builds overhead. However, some northeasterly wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kt remain possible Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Favorable marine conditions today with high pressure over the
region. Winds strengthen Tuesday into early Wednesday as
pressure gradient tightens between Imelda and high pressure to
the north. SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday through Tue
night.
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and
Imelda well off the coast will likely cause Small Craft Advisory
conditions to continue into Thursday with northeasterly winds.
Lighter winds are expected Friday as the high moves overhead.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KRR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...LFR/ADS
MARINE...LFR/KRR/ADS

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion