Raywick, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS63 KLMK 081549
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1149 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Chilly conditions expected this morning with lows in the 40s.
*  Dry and pleasant weather expected this week with a gradual
   warming trend in temperatures.
*  Next chance of rain likely not arriving until next Sunday or
   Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The forecast is on track this morning. No updates needed or planned.
We`re well on our way to a dry and comfortable day with highs in the
75 to 80 degree range for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Skies were clear across the region this morning.  GOES night-time
fog imagery shows fog in the deeper valleys across eastern KY and
down in the Lake Cumberland region.  Temperatures across the region
were in the mid-upper 40s in the valleys and around 50 on the
ridges.  Temperatures are running a little warmer this morning
mainly due to a light northeasterly wind that is keeping the
boundary layer a little more mixed and not allowing a good
radiational cooling profile.  No significant weather is expected
through sunrise.  Overnight low temperatures will be in the low-mid
40s in the valleys with upper 40s on the ridges and in the 50s in
the urban corridors. In our typical colder spots that have good
radiational cooling, a shot at the upper 30s still looks possible.
For today, after a chilly start, we`ll see mostly sunny skies with a
diurnal Cu field setting up in the afternoon.  Highs will range from
the low-mid 70s across southern Indiana and the northern half of
Kentucky.  Across southern Kentucky, highs of 75-80 are expected.
For tonight, another night of clear skies are expected with some
light fog possible in our Lake Cumberland valley locations.  Lows
will range from the mid-upper 40s in the valleys to around 50 on the
ridges and in urban corridors.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For the long term period, still not seeing much change in the
current forecast thinking.  Model solutions continue to be quite
steady in showing a rather blocky pattern across North America with
troughs on both coasts and a ridge across the Plains.  The ridge
across the Plains may grow a little more to the east during the late
week period.
In terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny days and mostly clear
nights are expected with no real rainfall chances.  On a whole,
temperatures through the period will average below normal for early
September.  However, as the aforementioned ridge axis moves
eastward, we`ll see temperatures warm through the upcoming work week.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to the lower-mid 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 50s.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into
the low-mid 80s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, with
southern Kentucky seeing temps warm into the upper 80s.  For
Thursday through Sunday, highs in the afternoon will warm into the
85-90 degree range with overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower
60s.
Looking further ahead, the upper level ridge across the Plains will
continue to build toward the end of the extended period.  A closed
cut off low looks to drop southward out of Ontario and into the
Great Lakes by late Sunday and into Monday which may drive a cold
front through the region bringing our next chance of measurable
precipitation.  Uncertainty increases with time here as to what
happens with this cut off low.  OP Euro solutions keep it parked
over the northern Ohio Valley and into the northeast US, while the
Euro AI allows the low to open up and move off the east coast.  The
implications here will mainly affect temperatures, where we would
see cooler conditions if the upper low sets up over the Ohio Valley,
with potentially hotter conditions if the low moves off to the east
with ridging building in.  With continued ridging over the Plains,
it appears that a core of heat will develop out across the Midwest
and into the Mid-MS Valley.  This could eventually work its way into
our region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period.  Winds will
gradually pickup out of the northeast this morning.  A diurnal Cu
field is expected to develop by mid-late morning and then mix out by
evening.  VFR conditions are expected tonight and Tuesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion