Red Lake Trail, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS65 KPUB 180930
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler and drier today, with warmer and drier conditions returning
  to the area on Friday.
- Warmer over the weekend into Monday with only some very
  isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains
- A cold front will bring slightly cooler air and a small uptick
  in shower and thunderstorm chances starting Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Today and Tonight...
Generally cool and dry across the area today, as an upper-level
ridge builds in from the west. High temperatures will generally be
in the high-60s to mid-70s across the forecast area. Cloud cover
will slowly decrease across the area as well today, due to the
slowly dwindling low-level moisture left over from yesterday. Models
have trended down as far as precipitation chances are concerned. As
of now, guidance only shows the chance for a few isolated showers
over the southeast mountains, Palmer Divide, and Raton Mesa this
afternoon. If any showers do manage to form, they will be generally
weak and short-lived.
Some clouds will return to the area tonight, mainly over the higher
terrain. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s to low-50s,
while the high valleys sink into the 30s once again.
Friday...
The upper low will fully depart on Friday, leaving southeast
Colorado in drier and generally westerly flow aloft. Temperatures
will noticeably warmer than today, with 70s over the valleys and 80s
across the plains. Again, generally dry across the area, though some
isolated POPs will begin sneaking into our western mountains later
in the day as some Pacific moisture begins to return to the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Flat upper ridge across Colorado Fri/Sat will allow a modest
influx of mainly mid/high level moisture into the state, leading
to an upturn in convection both days. Low levels look to remain
dry, with surface dewpoints in the 30s, and suspect most
activity stay high-based and weak, generating mostly wind and
lightning, but only a few sprinkles or brief light rain. Temps
both days will end up just slightly above average levels, and a
few spots on the plains could get close to 90f Sunday
afternoon.
Flow aloft become nwly Mon as strong upper wave drops into the
nrn plains by afternoon. Expect a continuation of warm temps and
just isolated convection, along with a increase in wind speeds
as lee surface trough deepens. Models seem to have converged on
a late Mon/Mon night cold frontal passage, with perhaps a brief
window for showers/thunderstorms along and behind the front into
Tues morning. Mostly dry and a little cooler Tue into mid-week,
with upper low wallowing around in the lower Mississippi Valley,
keeping weak nwly flow in place across Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will generally be light and diurnally driven.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion