Reeds Gap Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS61 KCTP 080544
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
144 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Beneficial rainfall overnight before ending from NW to SE
  early Wednesday morning
* Breezy and much cooler tomorrow feeling more like Fall; start
  of another prolonged dry stretch into the weekend
* Nighttime frost/freeze potential increasing mid to late week
* Some chc of showers across southeast PA early next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Most of the rain so far as of 9 PM has been along the shoreline
of Lake Erie and over far southwest PA.
Current obs and radar support band of heavier rain lifting
northeast across the Susquehanna Valley this evening so far.
This activity will continue the next few hours, before being
further east by late tonight. Current temperatures on track,
along with the winds.
Earlier discussion below.
Wave of low pressure and PW max near KY/IN/OH seems to have
robbed the best moisture return so far into CPA via southwest
LLJ ahead of primary cold front crossing Lake Erie. All
indications from hires model data indicate a continued
uptick/west-to-east expansion of shower activity through the
evening hours with beneficial rainfall continuing overnight into
early Wednesday morning.
Much drier/increasing northerly flow behind the cold front will
end rainfall from NW to SE across most of CPA by 12Z/8AM Wed.
Min temps trend 10-15 degrees lower across the NW mtns with lows
in the mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Hints of just enough of a breeze to taper the cold Wednesday
night, but it will still be on the cold side, so would still
be expecting that at some point that headlines will be needed.
Thursday night looks to be the colder night with a weak
pressure gradient and high 500 mb heights and low PW values,
hard to see how one would not get colder than Wednesday night.
Earlier discussion below.
Turing breezy and noticeably cooler tomorrow with mix of sun
and clouds as 1030+mb high pressure migrates southeastward over
the Great Lakes. The airmass associated with this seasonably
strong anticyclone will be the coldest so far this season and
bring (after many days of above normal daytime warmth) the
first prolonged stretch of seasonably cooler Fall weather to
CPA. This stretch should also include the first widespread frost
and freeze with the highest risk Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed
in the next 1-2 forecast cycles. Max temps on Thursday are
expected to be ~5 degrees below the historical average for early
October.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have low chc pops in the far southeast for Sunday. Interaction
between a developing low just off the coast early on and an
upper level low dropping southeast could at least make for a
breezy and cool day on Sunday and perhaps Monday as well,
especially if it is cloudy. Also a nasty setup for our coastal
friends. At least not talking winter weather with this one. Will
continue to monitor the situation over the next few days.
After this looking at perhaps a bit of a moderating trend as we
get to the middle of next week.
Earlier discussion below.
High pressure stays pretty much locked in over the region in
stagnant blocking pattern with closed/sfc low offshore the OBX.
This will translate into an extended dry stretch at least
through Saturday. Easterly flow could begin to influence the
area by the end of the weekend with various model solutions even
suggesting some potential for rain across the eastern part of
the forecast area as the low tracks northward off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Daytime highs trend near to above the seasonal
average with the largest departures (+5-10F) across northwest
PA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple clusters of showers continue to traverse across
central Pennsylvania this evening, with the main changes in the
06Z TAF package coming with respect to near-term (though ~09 to
10Z) radar trends and some signals for lower ceilings and
visibilities due to enhancement of shower activity closer to
the airfields. Timing of SHRA in the 00Z TAF package seems to be
on track and continues to trend with the most recent GLAMP/NBM
guidance, thus minimal edits here. Slightly lower ceilings have
been observed in (+)SHRA; however, the guidance is outlining
that the bulk of airfields will experience prevailing MVFR
ceilings ( with brief 1-2 hour periods of borderline IFR
conditions) as the floor for all but BFD/JST/AOO, where there is
higher confidence in IFR to LIFR conditions overnight.
Dry air begins to work in quickly after the cold frontal
passage, with cloud cover quickly decreasing after sunrise as
high pressure builds in. This will allow for scattered cloud
coverage this morning, trending towards mainly clear skies with
scattered diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Winds will turn to
the northwest behind the cold front and will be sustained at 10
to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely.
Outlook...
Thu...VFR.
Fri-Sun...Patchy AM fog, otherwise clear with VFR conditions.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin/Bauco
AVIATION...Bauco/NPB

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion