Reedy Creek Lake, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

018
FXUS62 KRAH 141103
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
703 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through Monday, although a weak upper
level low settling over the Carolinas will bring periods of clouds
each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Very isolated and shallow fog is possible in the far NE Piedmont
through around sunrise, mainly near the VA border. But it will be
limited by dry air just above the surface and extensive mid/high
level cloud cover currently spreading across central NC.
Little change in the weather pattern is expected today and tonight.
The mid/upper trough along the Southeast US coast will close off
into a low that slowly drifts NNE to the GA/SC coast by Monday
morning. An Omega blocking type pattern will be in place across the
CONUS with strong mid/upper ridging extending from the MS Valley
into the Upper Great Lakes and troughing on either side, over the
northern/central Plains and over SE Canada. At the surface, an area
of low pressure will gradually deepen and remain nearly stationary
east of the SC/southern NC coast along a stalled front. Meanwhile
ridging will continue to extend into the southern Mid-Atlantic from
high pressure centered over southern Ontario and Quebec. With
central NC still under the influence of this ridging and on the dry
backside of the mid-level trough/low, below-normal PW values will
continue to prevail. So only some scattered-broken mid and high
clouds are expected, initially more in the east before expanding
across the whole area tonight. Temperatures will be slightly warmer
than yesterday as low-level thicknesses slightly rise. Forecast
highs are in the lower-to-mid-80s and forecast lows in the upper-50s
to lower-60s. This is near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...
The coastal low will move NNW to reach near the Outer Banks on
Tuesday morning, as the surface high centered over southern Quebec
slowly drifts SE to reach northern New England. Surface ridging will
continue to extend to its south but begin to get pushed westward as
the low pressure system makes a closer approach. Aloft, the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the closed mid/upper low will
move north to become centered over central NC by Tuesday morning.
This will begin to spread some deeper moisture and rain into eastern
NC, so have low chance POPs spreading into the Coastal Plain by
Monday afternoon, which increase to chance across all of central NC
on Monday night. Some model differences remain, but the best chance
of rain looks to be to the E/NE of Raleigh. With the surface low
still to our east, models have instability mostly non-existent
during the day on Monday. So keep out any mention of thunder in the
forecast until Monday night, when guidance shows some slightly
higher dew points in the lower-60s and marginal MUCAPE around 100-
300 J/kg spreading into the Coastal Plain as the low lifts north.
Still think any thunder would be isolated at best though. Monday`s
temperatures will be kept down by mostly cloudy skies, with highs in
the mid-70s to lower-80s. Monday night`s lows will be in the upper-
50s to lower-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...
* Below normal temperatures through mid-week before returning to
  above normal temperatures through the weekend.
* Isolated to scattered showers possible Tuesday through Wednesday,
  with the best chance in the east.
A coastal low will form off of a stalled front off the coast and
move along the NC coast to begin the work week, bringing the
potential of showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Model guidance is still split on the location of the low
and therefore how much rain will be able to get inland to central
NC, however seem to be coming into better agreement for rain
reaching at least the US-1 corridor and east. The airmass over the
region looks to be relatively stable, limiting thunder chances,
however a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in
the northeast. Regardless of rain chances, clouds look to increase
Tuesday and Wednesday and temperatures have trended downward. Highs
on Tuesday could reach 15 degrees below normal, with highs in the
low-to-mid 70s, with some locations potentially only reaching the
upper 60s. Wednesday should be a few degrees warmer, with highs in
the 70s.
After the coastal low moves to our north, central NC should return
to a period of mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Maximum temperatures look to warm back up into the 80s from Thursday
through Saturday. Low temperatures each night are expected to range
from the upper 50s to the low-to-mid 60s. The next chance of rain
looks to be next weekend due to an approaching upper trough, however
details are very unclear at this time due to large model spread.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...
24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions will largely prevail across
central NC through the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken mainly
mid/high clouds that gradually thicken and lower will persist across
the area, especially in the east. Winds from the NE will increase to
5-10 kts gusting to 15-20 kts at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and
RWI) from late this morning into the afternoon, diminishing after
sunset.
Outlook: Cloud cover is expected to continue increasing and lowering
with patchy showers possible by late Monday/Monday night and
especially into Tue/Wed as a weak upper level low settles over the
Carolinas. The best chance of rain and sub-VFR ceilings/visibilities
will be at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and RWI). Conditions
should improve to VFR again on Thursday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Danco

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion