Rehoboth, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

639
FXUS65 KABQ 221145 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will develop over western and central
  New Mexico this afternoon then move quickly east across eastern
  New Mexico this evening. Wind gusts may exceed 50 mph along with
  brief heavy rainfall.
- A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to
  northeast New Mexico Tuesday then to all of eastern New Mexico
  on Wednesday. North wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible over
  eastern NM Tuesday night. Canyon winds may gust to between 30
  and 40 mph on the east side of Albuquerque late Tuesday night.
- We have increasing forecast confidence that a Pacific system
  will approach from the west toward the end of the work week,
  bringing improved chances for showers and storms from Friday
  through the weekend. This scenario would lead to an increasing
  risk for burn scar flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Moisture is surging into western and central NM early this morning
as a 70-80kt subtropical jet moves east from AZ. The blended Total
Precipitable Water (TPW) satellite product shows impressive PWATs
>1.5" over southern AZ entering southwest NM with values rising to
near 0.90" south and west of ABQ at 2am. Showers and storms over
east-central AZ have been trickling eastward across the AZ/NM
state line overnight. This activity will continue spreading into
the area between Gallup and Farmington thru sunrise. QPF amounts
will average 0.10"-0.20" thru noontime based on the latest HREF
and NBM 50th percentile. Southwest flow aloft with the upper
level jet will become more zonal over northern NM today as another
upper level low presses southward from the northern Rockies. A
second batch of showers and storms is expected to initiate in the
area of greater ascent and moisture advection over west-central NM
between 1pm and 3pm today. Model SBCAPE values are only ~500 J/kg
but given the strong forcing aloft, high bulk shear values >40kt,
and well above normal PWATs near 1", a somewhat organized area of
showers and storms may develop downstream into the RGV and across
eastern NM thru late this afternoon and evening. Hi-res model
guidance like the HRRR, HREF, and RRFS suggest a strong convective
outflow boundary progressing rapidly east along the leading edge
of a cold pool with gusts >40KT possible. The HREF ensemble max
gust has a few pockets with >60KT over eastern NM this evening.
SPC will be adding a Marginal Risk for severe storms to parts of
the area with the next update. Storms are likely to exit eastern
NM before midnight followed by gradual clearing from west to east
across western and central NM.
The next feature to watch will be a backdoor cold front entering
northeast NM overnight. This initial push doesn`t appear overly
impressive with mainly cooler temps for Tuesday across eastern NM
and perhaps some low clouds over northeast NM Tuesday morning.
There is still a moderate amount of uncertainty with regard to
storm coverage Tuesday afternoon given the location of the remnant
backdoor cold front and amount of mid and upper level dry air
advecting into the region. Higher confidence exists for storm
development in northeast NM where the upper level wave moving thru
CO provides better lift and moisture over the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A second and stronger backdoor cold front is likely to surge south
and west across eastern NM Tuesday night. A brief period of north
wind gusts >40KT is possible in association with the cold frontal
passage over eastern NM. The latest MET/MAV MOS shows the area
from near Clayton to Tucumcari and Clovis with sustained speeds
from 25 to 30KT for a couple hours. The NBM/HREF 75th percentile
wind gusts average 30 to 40 mph as well. This boundary may also
bring a brief period of moderate gap winds to the RGV from ABQ
southward before sunrise Wednesday. MOS is trending stronger and
NBM 75th percentile gusts are also 30 to 40 mph. Widespread low
clouds may develop over eastern NM in the wake of the front as
ceiling probabilities 40KT. The main
impact window is likely from 3pm to 9pm. Storms are expected to
exit eastern NM by midnight with skies clearing from west to east
across the remainder of the area. A backdoor cold front will then
slide south thru eastern NM with a northerly wind shift producing
gusts near 25KT after midnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for at least
the next seven days. Showers and storms with strong winds are likely
to develop over western NM this afternoon then surge east across the
Rio Grande Valley into eastern NM thru this evening. Some storms may
also produce brief heavy rainfall. A backdoor cold front will then
move south into eastern NM tonight with cooler temps and additional
precip chances for eastern NM Tuesday. A stronger backdoor front is
expected to enter eastern NM Tuesday night with a brief period of
strong north winds then widespread low clouds Wednesday morning.
Wednesday and Thursday will be transition days with lower precip
chances, lighter winds, and warmer temps by Thursday. A slow-
moving storm system approaching from the west Friday may bring an
extended period of unsettled weather with cooler temps and several
days of showers and storms possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  70  50  76  47 /  30  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  69  38  73  34 /  30  10  10  10
Cuba............................  69  43  74  41 /  50  20  10  10
Gallup..........................  70  44  77  35 /  60  20   5   5
El Morro........................  70  47  75  42 /  60  30  10   5
Grants..........................  72  46  78  38 /  60  30  20   5
Quemado.........................  74  48  77  44 /  60  30  20   5
Magdalena.......................  77  53  78  50 /  70  30  30  10
Datil...........................  73  48  76  44 /  70  30  30  10
Reserve.........................  81  49  84  48 /  60  20  20  10
Glenwood........................  86  55  89  55 /  40  20  10  10
Chama...........................  64  38  66  36 /  40  20  20  10
Los Alamos......................  69  49  72  46 /  40  20  20  10
Pecos...........................  74  47  75  44 /  30  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  70  43  69  39 /  30  20  30  20
Red River.......................  61  35  58  32 /  40  20  40  30
Angel Fire......................  67  32  65  28 /  30  20  30  20
Taos............................  72  41  73  38 /  30  20  20  20
Mora............................  71  43  70  38 /  30  20  20  30
Espanola........................  76  48  78  45 /  40  20  10  10
Santa Fe........................  73  50  74  47 /  30  30  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  76  48  78  45 /  40  30  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  57  81  55 /  50  30  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  54  82  54 /  50  30  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  53  84  53 /  50  30  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  55  82  54 /  50  30  10   5
Belen...........................  84  53  86  52 /  60  30  10   5
Bernalillo......................  81  53  82  51 /  50  30  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  82  52  84  51 /  50  30  10   5
Corrales........................  81  53  83  52 /  50  30  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  83  53  84  52 /  60  30  10   5
Placitas........................  77  53  79  50 /  40  30  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  79  54  82  52 /  50  30  10   5
Socorro.........................  86  57  86  56 /  60  40  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  49  75  47 /  40  30  10  10
Tijeras.........................  76  51  77  49 /  50  30  10  10
Edgewood........................  76  46  77  45 /  40  40  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  45  79  42 /  40  40  10  10
Clines Corners..................  75  48  74  43 /  40  50  10  20
Mountainair.....................  78  50  79  46 /  60  50  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  79  50  78  47 /  60  50  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  84  57  83  54 /  30  40  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  77  54  76  47 /  20  30  30  40
Capulin.........................  76  46  66  41 /  20  20  40  50
Raton...........................  78  46  69  42 /  10  20  50  40
Springer........................  80  47  74  44 /  10  20  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  76  45  73  39 /  20  30  20  30
Clayton.........................  85  54  72  49 /   5  20  20  40
Roy.............................  81  50  74  47 /  10  20  30  40
Conchas.........................  89  56  81  53 /  10  40  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  85  55  81  51 /  20  60  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  88  55  79  50 /   5  40  10  30
Clovis..........................  91  61  83  54 /   5  30  10  30
Portales........................  92  61  84  53 /   5  30  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  90  59  84  54 /  10  60  10  30
Roswell.........................  94  63  89  59 /   5  20  10  30
Picacho.........................  88  58  84  54 /  10  20  20  30
Elk.............................  85  57  81  51 /   5  10  20  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion