Richfield, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

459
FXUS63 KDDC 072329
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storms near the Colorado border this evening, not much
  progression east though
- Morning showers and thunderstorms across the central and
  eastern zones
- Additional showers and storms possible Monday evening,
  confidence though is lower
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Much of the FA should remain dry tonight. The main exception to
this is across the Colorado border. Will have to watch for orographic
induced storms across the high plains of Colorado this evening. Mid
level flow is not that strong, so this activity should only impact
the far western zones this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the FA
should remain dry this evening.
The next opportunity for storms will come tomorrow morning, mainly
for the central and eastern zones. Here, warm air advection and isentropic
lift should set the stage for another round of showers and storms
in this mentioned area. Will go with about 30% pops for mainly the
eastern zones to account for this possibility of precipitation.
A third round of storms exists Monday evening. It should be noted
there is lower confidence on this third round. Typically, the atmosphere
could be pretty worked over with two rounds before this third round.
If this third round does come into fruition, a strong storm cannot
be ruled out. Marginally severe wind and hail reports along with
brief heavy rainfall would be the main threats.
By Tuesday, we will enter a mid level shortwave ridging pattern. This
would favor a drier forecast for the FA. This continued dry pattern
looks to continue through much of the midweek portion. Temperatures
will increase each day, and widespread 80s to even around 90F will
be the rule during this mentioned period.
Will have to watch to see how both the deterministic models as well
as their ensemble counterparts trend for next weekend. Isolated storms
may be reintroduced into the forecast. Confidence though is low as
this data diverges in consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Over the next 24 hours, several upper level disturbances moving
through southwest Kansas will bring opportunities for
thunderstorms. The first round of scattered thunderstorms
(20-30% chance) is expected between 00Z and 06Z Monday,
primarily west of Highway 83 with Liberal having the better
chances for seeing anything from these storms then the Garden
City area. The next round of storms will occur after 08z Monday
(30-40% chance) as better warm air advection and moisture
transport between 850-700mb develops across southwest Kansas
ahead of the next upper level wave. A third opportunity for
storms is during the last few hours of the TAF period. BUFR
soundings suggest a higher likelihood of lower ceilings and
visibilities with these storms tonight than what the latest
short term ensemble guidance indicates. Will follow the more
pessimistic low cloud heights at this time as these widely
scattered storms cross southwest Kansas. Outside these
storms...VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds tonight will be from the southeast at 10 to 15
knots shifting to the south. These southerly winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots between 15Z and 18Z Monday as stronger winds
from the boundary layer mix down to the surface.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion